Brent / Urals Differential
December 16, 2022
The Brent oil price and Russia’s Urals oil price (USD/Bbl), from February 2022 through mid-October 2022, illustrates the price differential between these two prices.
Since April 2022, the Urals price has been about 70% of Brent. Should Brent fall to $72, Russian oil revenue will be insufficient to balance the Russian budget. If it drops to $60, a significant portion of Russian oil production will become uneconomical.
Price Cap for Russian Oil
October 5, 2022
Compares the cost of Russian oil to the expected price cap of USD $40-60/bbl and the Q3 2022 prices for both the Urals and Brent prices. Additional chart showing the Urals price forecast to 2025 used for the Russian budget projections.
Explores the impact of the proposed price cap on Russian oil as part of the sanctions being imposed by the G7 and EU. The goal is to reduce funds flowing to Russia. The price cap plan has both pros and cons.
Henry Hub Natural Gas Influences
August 15, 2021
How changes in various supply and demand fundamental drivers impact Henry Hub natural gas prices over the 2021-30 time period.
The largest contributors are natural gas for the electric generation sector, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and supply growth.
Worldwide LNG Impacting Henry Hub
August 16, 2021
Illustrates the historical impact of the European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) liquefied natural gas (LNG) price spreads on Henry Hub prices.
From 2010 to 2015, European pricing was well in excess of North American pricing, even considering cost of liquefaction and shipping. This drove the rapid development of liquefaction capacity in the US.
Henry Hub Price Forecast to 2030
August 16, 2021
Henry Hub monthly and annual natural gas prices since 2010 and Incorrys annual price forecast to 2030.
Uncertainty in 2020 commodity markets, mainly due to Covid, saw natural gas prices drop significantly from 2019 with Henry Hub prices down about 50%. As the markets recover, Incorrys expects Henry Hub prices to escalate over the forecast period.
AECO-NIT Price Forecast to 2030
August 16, 2021
AECO-NIT (Nova Inventory Transfer) actual and annual natural gas prices since 2010 and Incorrys annual price forecast to 2030. Additional information includes the corresponding basis differentials to Henry Hub.
AECO-NIT prices suffered the same Covid driven fate as Henry Hub in 2020, down 60% compared to 2019. Incorrys expects AECO-NIT natural gas prices to escalate over the short-term before flattening over the last half of the forecast.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Price Forecast to 2030
August 18, 2021
West Texas intermediate (WTI) monthly and annual crude oil prices since 2010 and Incorrys annual price forecast to 2030.
Uncertainty in 2020 commodity markets, mainly due to Covid, also saw crude oil prices drop significantly from 2019 with WTI down about 50%. Incorrys expects the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price to increase marginally through 2030.
Western Canada Select (WCS) Price Forecast to 2030
August 18, 2021
Western Canada Select (WCS) actual and annual crude oil prices since 2010 and Incorrys annual price forecast to 2030. Additional information includes the corresponding basis differentials to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price.
WCS 2020 prices were down 60% year-over-year, again, primarily due to the impact of Covid. Incorrys expects the Western Canada Select price to increase slowly through to 2030.