August 18, 2021

Download Excel File

This chart shows Incorrys WCS price forecast to 2030 (actual monthly prices are shown with the blue line). The actual price in 2020 of 26.80 USD/Bbl is down 60% compared to the 65.30 USD/Bbl from 2010. The forecast increases from 48.30 USD/Bbl in 2022 to 54.65 USD/Bbl in 2030.

Uncertainty in 2020 commodity markets saw WCS pricing fall largely due Covid’s impact.

WCS Basis Differential Forecast

Download Excel File

WCS Basis Drivers

Recovering Oilsands production is offset by Enbridge flows which are expected to increase in Q4 2021 as Line 3 comes into service.

TransMountain Expansion completion in December 2022 diverts rail and Enbridge Midwest directed flows toward valuable West Coast/Asian markets.

With incremental new pipe completed in 2022, rail shipments are no longer economic with basis narrowing.