Incorrys Forecasting Models
Incorrys’s forecasting methodology for Global Energy Markets, Disruptive Technology, and Environmental Management is based on advanced methods and algorithms that are deeply rooted in operational research and management science.
Incorrys proprietary forecasting models incorporate risk and decision analysis methodologies, cost assessment for new technologies, and resource/abatement curve analysis. These three integrated analytical approaches help to predict future trends in different industries based on historical data.
Analytical Methodologies
Incorrys performs risk and decision analysis of forecasting models with the aim of incorporating risk and uncertainties into the forecasts. Incorrys maintains a comprehensive Risk Register for possible major events in different industries. Such events include technological, natural, political and other threats and opportunities. Such threats and opportunities are then assigned to different processes which need to be forecast. Incorrys then performs Monte Carlo risk analysis using Event Chain Methodology and decision analysis using decision trees to incorporate human response to the threats and opportunities.
In order to forecast future trends in technology, Incorrys estimates the cost of technological innovation and developing new technologies in different industries and jurisdictions. The assumption is that investment will flow to the industry, technology, or jurisdiction with lower cost to archive the same result. Incorrys performs detailed analysis of the cost of most modern technologies and their implementation related to energy, environmental protection, and new technology. Incorrys constantly monitors technological innovations as they can often lead to significant cost reductions.
Resource curves present the cumulative score of resources or capabilities. Score is calculated based on multiple factors, such as cost, environmental impact, public relations, and others using multi-criteria decision making approaches. For example, in case of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, resource or abatement curves shows what the technology costs and amount of GHG emission reductions the technology could bring. In general, the capital should move to the cheapest technology and, as the technology is implemented, more expensive technology will begin to be introduced. This way Incorrys forecasts which technology will be developed first, how much it would cost, and how long would it take to implement.