Canadian Oil Production Forecast 2015-2035

July 8, 2024

Historical and forecast to 2035 of Canadian oil supply (MMBbl/d) by type; conventional onshore, offshore, and oil sands (further split between mining and in situ).

Looking to 2035, Incorrys is forecasting total Canadian oil production to continue to increase at about 2% annually through 2028 before leveling off for the remainder of the forecast period, averaging just 0.8% annually.

Alberta Oil Production Forecast (excl Oil Sands)

July 9, 2024

Historical and forecast to 2040 of Alberta oil supply (MMBbl/d) by major basin (excluding oil sands) which includes wells classified as volatile oil, oil and heavy oil but excludes wells classified as Condensate and Bitumen.

Clearwater remains the largest source of Alberta conventional and tight oil production, accounting for over 50% of future production through 2040.

Total Oil Sands Production 2016-2022

July 9, 2024

Total Alberta oil sands production (MBbl/d), from 2016-2022, by production type; mining and in situ.

Mining accounts for about 40% of total oil sands production ranging from almost 900 MBbl/d in 2016 to over 1300 MBbl/d in 2022. In situ represents about 60% of total oil sands production.

Oil Sands Production Forecast by Project

July 9, 2024

Alberta oil sands production forecast (MBbl/d) to 2030 by project. Additional illustrative map showing the approximate location of the oil sands deposits and pipeline system.

After posting a 2.6% per year growth rate from 2019 to 2023, Incorrys forecasts Canadian oil sands growth to slow with the completion of new large scale mining projects. Incorrys now forecasts an average annual growth rate of 1.5% (from 3.1MM Bbl/d in 2023 to 3.4MM Bbl/d in 2030).

In Situ Oil Sands Production by Company 2022

July 10, 2024

Alberta in situ oil sands production (MBbl/d) by company for 2022.

The top three in situ Producers are Suncor Energy (490 MBbl/d), Cenovus Energy (480 MBbl/d, and Canadian Natural Resources (34: MBbl/d). After the top three, production declines sharply to 140 MBbl/d declining to near zero.

Oil Sands Mining Production by Company

July 10, 2024

Alberta oil sands mining production (MBbl/d) by company.

The top 4 oil sands mining producers are Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Imperial Oil, and Syncrude Canada.

Canadian Oil Exports by Rail 2012-2023

July 10, 2024

Monthly Canadian oil exports shipped by rail between 2012 and 2023.

Due to continuing Alberta pipeline export capacity constraints, some Canadian oil must be transported by rail to US refineries, primarily in the US Gulf Coast (USGC) region.

Offshore Oil Production and Forecast

July 11, 2024

Total Canadian offshore oil production and forecast by major field. Additional chart showing individual field production.

Canadian Offshore oil production, located east of Newfoundland, grew rapidly from 220 to 260 MBbl/d in 2019. Offshore production has since dropped to 200 MBbl/d in 2023 due to well declines for all projects. Although Incorrys is forecasting additional supply from White Rose in 2026 generally, offshore oil production continues to decline throughout the forecast period.

Weighted Gross Revenue by Company 2022

July 11, 2024

Weighted gross oil revenue (USD/Bbl) by company per barrel of oil production.

The 2022 weighted gross revenue per company ranged from a high of 66 USD/Bbl for Bighorn Energy to a low of 26 USD/Bbl for Sunshine Oil Sands.

Oil Sands Weighted Gross Revenue

July 11, 2024

Weighted gross revenue (USD/Bbl) for the Alberta oil sands, split between mining and in situ operations, from 2016 through 2022

Since 2016, gross revenue has been steadily climbing with the exception of 2020, impacted by the Covid pandemic. Mining had lower weighted gross revenue per barrel as compared to in situ operations.

Royalty Rate by Company 2022

July 11, 2024

Royalty rates, the percentage of revenue that companies pay to the government and/or landowners for the right to extract oil, by company for 2022.

Royalty rates range from a high of 40% for Bighorn Energy to a low of under 9%. Rates can differ among different companies reflecting different contractual agreements.

Oil Sands Royalty Rate by Project Type

July 11, 2024

Alberta oil sands royalty rates for both mining and in situ operations for 2016-2022.

In general, royalty rates for mining and in situ have both been increasing, except for 2020 due to the impact of the covid pandemic. Mining rates have climbed from just over 1% to 26% and in situ from 8% to 19%.

Canadian Oil Rig Count by Province

July 11, 2024

Historical monthly Canadian oil rig count by province (Alberta and Saskatchewan) from 2012 through Q1 2024.

On average, Alberta accounted for about 70% of the total annual average rig count vs 30% Saskatchewan. Rig count is heavily influenced by prevailing market conditions and prices.

Canadian Oil Rig Count by Trajectory

July 11, 2024

Historical annual average Canadian oil rig count by trajectory (Horizontal and Vertical) from 2012 through Q1 2024.

The total annual rig count dropped from a high of 250 in 2012 to just 59 in 2016. The rig count recovered slightly in 2017 and 2018 before reaching a low of 44 in the 2020 pandemic year. It has since recovered to 130 rigs in Q1 2024. Horizontal drilling has been the primary focus as it results in higher well productivity and recoverable oil per well.

Clearwater Oil Production

July 12, 2024

Clearwater oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.

Clearwater oil production grew from about 200,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to 300,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to continue to grow post 2023 peaking at over 390,000 Bbl/d in 2031 before declining to 2023 levels by 2040.

Cardium Oil Production

July 12, 2024

Cardium oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.

Oil production from the Cardium declined from about 65,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to 36,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to grow post 2023 to almost 45,000 Bbl/d before declining to 40,000 Bbl/d in 2040.

Montney Oil Production

July 12, 2024

Montney oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.

Montney oil production grew from about 20,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to over 50,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to continue to grow post 2023 peaking at almost 60,000 Bbl/d by 2028 before declining to 37,000 Bbl/d in 2040.