Latest Energy and Environment Forecasts
The US is expected to reach ~ 12.0 Bcf/d of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports in 2023, up 17% from 2022. Incorrys is forecasting US exports to increase further to 13.5 Bcf/d in 2024 and 25 Bcf/d by 2028.
Global generation from hydropower is expected to drop by about 2% in 2023 primarily due to drought conditions in China, the worlds largest hydropower producer. Incorrys expects that post 2023, under normal weather conditions, the global trend will return to positive, albeit at a modest 2% annually.
Lithium used in BEV cars has grown from essentially nothing in 2010 to 11,000 tonnes in 2020 however, the growth is expected to accelerate through to 2030 increasing to about 175,000 tonnes. The number of PHEVs cars is also expected to show steady growth reaching 13,000 tonnes in 2030.
February 22, 2024
Coastal GasLink (CGL) is a natural gas pipeline project in Canada transporting natural gas from the Montney gas play in northeastern British Columbia to the LNG Canada export facility near Kitimat on the coast of British Columbia. The CGL provides natural gas feedstock to LNG Canada’s liquefied natural gas export terminal, with capacity adequate for two phases of development, consisting of two 900 MMcf/d liquefaction trains in each phase. With the cost to build CGL more than doubling from an initial estimate of Cdn$6.6 billion, Incorrys provides a forecast of CGL pipeline tolls at various cost and throughput levels using our proprietary pipeline tolling model.
February 16, 2024
On January 26, 2024, the Biden Administration announced a pause on pending decisions for permits to export liquified natural gas (LNG) to non free trade countries. The pause is intended to give the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) an opportunity to update the underlying analyses of economic, environmental, and national security considerations. Incorrys believes commercial parties risking capital are best placed to assess markets and allocate resources to highest returning investments. The announced U.S. LNG Approvals pause may make for good politics during the current election cycle, but with no practical impact.
February 1, 2024
The booming electric vehicle (EV) industry has sparked concerns about whether lithium production can keep up with the escalating demand. Incorrys is forecasting supply to increase over 10% to 145,000 tonnes in 2023 indicating industry efforts to meet the mounting demand. Incorrys expects that by 2030, the supply of lithium will nearly triple to almost 360,000 tonnes.
January 24, 2024
Hydropower is one of the oldest, largest, and most reliable sources of renewable energy and is larger than all other renewables combined (wind, solar, bioenergy and geothermal), although it is losing market share as growth in wind and solar generation expands. Annual growth of hydropower capacity is expected to be rather moderate at about 2% (30-40GW) annually growing from about 1400 GW in 2022 to over 1600 GW by 2030.
January 9, 2024
The global Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) market experienced a turbulent year in 2022. The market upheaval caused by the Russia/Ukraine conflict has stimulated significant interest in liquefaction and regasification facilities as markets seek to re-establish energy security priorities. In total, global liquefaction capacity is expected to reach almost 685 mtpa (about 90 Bcf/d of natural gas) in 2028, up over 200 mtpa (~40%) from the 475 mtpa recorded in 2022.
September 26, 2023
Biogas is a gaseous renewable energy source produced from raw materials such as agricultural waste, manure, municipal waste, plant material. Biomethane, on the other hand, is upgraded biogas to near pure methane. Combined, these two renewable energy sources only account for about 5% of the total bioenergy market and well under 1% of global primary energy. However, biogas use for electric generation has grown significantly over the past dozen years in many countries, including Germany, China, and India, from under 10 GW of capacity in 2010 to 25 GW last year.
August 16, 2023
Growth in wind power generation, like solar, is being driven by climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The wind industry has grown significantly since 2010 and, although that growth slowed over the past couple of years due to the challenging economic environment and global supply chain disruptions, it is expected to return to a growth pattern as these issues ease. Incorrys expects global wind power capacity will break the 1 TW mark sometime in 2023 and will approach the 2 TW range by 2030.
July 10, 2023
Driven primarily by climate change and the push for renewable energy, solar photovoltaics (PV) was a fast-growing market even before recent events that have brought energy security to the forefront. Solar PV capacity increased from just 6 GW in 2008 to almost 1200 GW in 2022. The cost of utility-scale solar PV has dropped 90% since 2009 – with the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) dropping from $360 USD/MWh to $38 USD/MWh in 2021. Incorrys expects solar capacity to more than triple from about 1200 GW in 2022 to 3800 GW in 2030.
June 1, 2023
To meet government mandates for lower CI fuels, more renewable diesel will be required to be blended going forward. How much will depend on the overall requirements for diesel, which is a function of overall vehicle stock. Diesel demand in Canada stagnates through the 2020-2035 period as the electric vehicle market cuts into light duty diesel demand. However, diesel vehicles have a specific niche which make them less susceptible to competition from the EV segment. As such, diesel demand will decline at a slower rate than gasoline vehicles.
May 27, 2023
The Canadian Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) is a regulation established by the Canadian government to reduce carbon intensity (CI) within transportation fuels. One of the ways to achieve this CI reduction is through the adoption of renewable diesel. While biodiesel can offer lower CI compared to traditional diesel fuel, its cost-effectiveness depends on factors such as the cost of production, feedstock prices, transportation costs, and tax incentives. Incorrys believes the most important factor is the cost of the feedstock used to produce the biodiesel.
May 10, 2023
The push to decarbonize global economies and boost energy independence has resulted in renewed interest in nuclear power generation, which has led to the development of new technologies in the nuclear power industry; most notably, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). The potential advantages of SMRs over traditional nuclear facilities are numerous however, the magnitude of these benefits has yet to be proven due to the lack of development to date. Incorrys expects total SMR annual capacity additions will total over 2100 MW by 2030.
March 24, 2023
Since the first half of 2020, the auto industry has been facing a systematic decline in production primarily due to the Covid-19 pandemic that heavily impacted manufacturing for a long while and has since contributed to supply chain disruptions of most items, including auto parts. One of the casualties of this has been the crisis in the semiconductor industry, not only from manufacturing and supply chain disruptions, but also stiff competition from home computers as more and more people began working from home. Semiconductor chip usage is 10 times greater in EVs than in gas powered cars (3000 chips\vehicle vs. 300 chips in a gas powered vehicle like the Ford Focus).
February 22, 2023
The 2023 estimated average price of currently available vehicles is USD $72,600 (excluding some of the very expensive models); this compares to Incorrys 2021 estimated average price of USD $70,360. Prices of BEVs, adjusted for inflation, have remained relatively flat over the last 3 years despite efforts to reduce the cost of batteries (the most expensive component of the electric vehicle). The global car industry is still in the process of transitioning toward EVs which is expected to take at least another 5-7 years. However, the price of EVs relative to those of gasoline vehicles are expected to decrease after 2024-2025, while battery capacity will continue to grow. Overall, customers now have a greater variety of BEV models to choose from ranging from more affordable to luxury.
December 15, 2022
The Russian budget depends very heavily on revenue from the energy sector; particularly from oil and gas. Of the total 2023 Russian federal budget revenue of 26 trillion rubles, 34% is expected to come from the energy sector. The Russian deficit, according to their 2023 budget, is expected to be around 3 trillion rubles – an optimistic scenario. The budget deficit will be financed from the both the National Wealth Fund, which was 9-10 trillion rubles at the end of 2022, as well as borrowing on the domestic market. Although the National Wealth Fund will be sufficient to finance the Russian economy and war efforts in 2023, and perhaps longer, the financial stability of Russia remains uncertain.
December 15, 2022
Incorrys expects limited decline in Russian supply in next 1 – 1.5 years and Russia will remain one of worlds largest oil exporters. Due to the financial issues facing Russia (from sanctions, the cost of the war on Ukraine and inability to access capital in western markets) coupled with the lack of new western technologies, Incorrys expects Russian oil production will decrease significantly over the coming years as little to no new development is expected to occur.
October 27, 2022
The cost of Russian oil in USD/Bbl for 2012, H1, 2022, and H2, 2022. Since Russia’s costs are not on a ‘full cycle’ cost basis like North America, Incorrys calculated an equivalent 2021 cost of the US Permian Basin for comparison. The total cost of Russian oil reaches USD $40-45/Bbl in 2021 including the cost for development of new fields however, as most new fields are located in remote areas of Siberia, they require significant infrastructure investment. The total cost of oil in Russia without new field development is comparable to costs in the Permian and other US Tight Oil basins.
October 25, 2022
Russia primarily produces conventional oil but also has a very large resource of Tight Oil although there currently is no active exploration. The largest oil producing region in Western Siberia which accounts for over half of Russian oil production. The largest potential Tight Oil formation is the Bazhenov Formation, which covers most of Western Siberia, although Incorrys believes that development of Bazhenov Shale will not proceed in the near future due to the high cost and lack of technology in Russia.
October 11, 2022
Incorrys believes that without western oil producers and oilfield service companies, Russia will not be able to increase their reserves base, maintain production, or reduce costs as most new fields require the latest technology to explore, develop and produce. While production from older fields will decline at a rate of up to 40%, technology Russia had previously acquired will work for a short while. However, as the drilling of new wells is always required to maintain or grow supply, a drop in production due to aging technological is expected to occur this year.
October 7, 2022
There are over 2,000 oil tanker ships worldwide of the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), Aframax and Suezmax classes. By comparison, Russia’s Sovcomflot fleet only consists of about 60 of the same class of vessels with an additional 60 ships designed to transport refined products and to shuttle crude oil from offshore platforms to the coast. If sanctioned Russian oil needs to be redirected to Asia (primarily India and China) there will be a need for an additional 120 vessels of varying sizes, including VLCC.
October 7, 2022
Russia exports crude oil from four main areas: the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Pacific Coast and the Arctic. Russia has approximately 64 oil terminals although only a few of them are considered large export facilities. Shortly after European oil sanctions take effect by the end 2022, Russia would have to redirect marine traffic away from Europe to Asia, primarily. Discusses shipping transit times, tanker rates, and additional transportation costs to India and China for oil diverted from Europe.
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Global coal production grew to 8300 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2021 and 2022, up about 12% from 7400 MTPA in 2010, led by China and India (combined for 62% of the total). Incorrys is forecasting global coal to be flat in coming years. Coal-fired generation capacity grew from 1300 GW in 2005 to 2246 GW in 2022 with China accounting for half (about 1100 GW) of the 2022 total.
LNG use is expected to increase globally as natural gas replaces coal-fired generation and to provide energy security for many regions beset by supply disruption(s) brought on by the Russia/Ukraine conflict. The LNG market experienced a turbulent year in 2022 with global LNG trade increasing 7% from 2021 to about 400 mtpa, This increase was primarily driven by European imports as they competed with Asia for LNG cargoes to offset loses in Russian supply.
Hydropower is one of the oldest, largest, and most reliable sources of renewable energy and is larger than all other renewables combined (wind, solar, bioenergy and geothermal), and ranks 3rd in the global power generation mix, behind coal and natural gas, representing about 15% of the worlds total. Incorrys does not expect big capacity increases going forward and is forecasting global hydropower capacity to increase from under 1400 GW in 2022 to just over 1600 GW in 2030; an increase of 230 GW (17%), 2% annually.
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