Latest Energy and Environment Forecasts
Incorrys expects that biogas power generation will grow year-over-year at an average annual rate of about 5% from 450 TWh in 2022 to more than 1000 TWh in 2030. Biomethane will comprise an increasing proportion of total biogas production going forward.
Total worldwide wind generation increases from 2150 TWh in 2022 to possibly 5500 TWh in 2030. This is about 20% lower than previously forecast due to expected delays in some projects, mainly in Europe.
Global electricity generation reaches 29000 TWh in 2030 – up 25% from 2023. Incorrys forecasts solar generation to increase from 1250 TWh in 2022 to 7200 TWh in 2030 and will account for 24% of global electric generation.
September 26, 2023
Biogas is a gaseous renewable energy source produced from raw materials such as agricultural waste, manure, municipal waste, plant material. Biomethane, on the other hand, is upgraded biogas to near pure methane. Combined, these two renewable energy sources only account for about 5% of the total bioenergy market and well under 1% of global primary energy. However, biogas use for electric generation has grown significantly over the past dozen years in many countries, including Germany, China, and India, from under 10 GW of capacity in 2010 to 25 GW last year.
August 16, 2023
Growth in wind power generation, like solar, is being driven by climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The wind industry has grown significantly since 2010 and, although that growth slowed over the past couple of years due to the challenging economic environment and global supply chain disruptions, it is expected to return to a growth pattern as these issues ease. Incorrys expects global wind power capacity will break the 1 TW mark sometime in 2023 and will approach the 2 TW range by 2030.
July 10, 2023
Driven primarily by climate change and the push for renewable energy, solar photovoltaics (PV) was a fast-growing market even before recent events that have brought energy security to the forefront. Solar PV capacity increased from just 6 GW in 2008 to almost 1200 GW in 2022. The cost of utility-scale solar PV has dropped 90% since 2009 – with the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) dropping from $360 USD/MWh to $38 USD/MWh in 2021. Incorrys expects solar capacity to more than triple from about 1200 GW in 2022 to 3800 GW in 2030.
June 1, 2023
To meet government mandates for lower CI fuels, more renewable diesel will be required to be blended going forward. How much will depend on the overall requirements for diesel, which is a function of overall vehicle stock. Diesel demand in Canada stagnates through the 2020-2035 period as the electric vehicle market cuts into light duty diesel demand. However, diesel vehicles have a specific niche which make them less susceptible to competition from the EV segment. As such, diesel demand will decline at a slower rate than gasoline vehicles.
May 27, 2023
The Canadian Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) is a regulation established by the Canadian government to reduce carbon intensity (CI) within transportation fuels. One of the ways to achieve this CI reduction is through the adoption of renewable diesel. While biodiesel can offer lower CI compared to traditional diesel fuel, its cost-effectiveness depends on factors such as the cost of production, feedstock prices, transportation costs, and tax incentives. Incorrys believes the most important factor is the cost of the feedstock used to produce the biodiesel.
May 10, 2023
The push to decarbonize global economies and boost energy independence has resulted in renewed interest in nuclear power generation, which has led to the development of new technologies in the nuclear power industry; most notably, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). The potential advantages of SMRs over traditional nuclear facilities are numerous however, the magnitude of these benefits has yet to be proven due to the lack of development to date. Incorrys expects total SMR annual capacity additions will total over 2100 MW by 2030.
March 24, 2023
Since the first half of 2020, the auto industry has been facing a systematic decline in production primarily due to the Covid-19 pandemic that heavily impacted manufacturing for a long while and has since contributed to supply chain disruptions of most items, including auto parts. One of the casualties of this has been the crisis in the semiconductor industry, not only from manufacturing and supply chain disruptions, but also stiff competition from home computers as more and more people began working from home. Semiconductor chip usage is 10 times greater in EVs than in gas powered cars (3000 chips\vehicle vs. 300 chips in a gas powered vehicle like the Ford Focus).
February 22, 2023
The 2023 estimated average price of currently available vehicles is USD $72,600 (excluding some of the very expensive models); this compares to Incorrys 2021 estimated average price of USD $70,360. Prices of BEVs, adjusted for inflation, have remained relatively flat over the last 3 years despite efforts to reduce the cost of batteries (the most expensive component of the electric vehicle). The global car industry is still in the process of transitioning toward EVs which is expected to take at least another 5-7 years. However, the price of EVs relative to those of gasoline vehicles are expected to decrease after 2024-2025, while battery capacity will continue to grow. Overall, customers now have a greater variety of BEV models to choose from ranging from more affordable to luxury.
December 15, 2022
The Russian budget depends very heavily on revenue from the energy sector; particularly from oil and gas. Of the total 2023 Russian federal budget revenue of 26 trillion rubles, 34% is expected to come from the energy sector. The Russian deficit, according to their 2023 budget, is expected to be around 3 trillion rubles – an optimistic scenario. The budget deficit will be financed from the both the National Wealth Fund, which was 9-10 trillion rubles at the end of 2022, as well as borrowing on the domestic market. Although the National Wealth Fund will be sufficient to finance the Russian economy and war efforts in 2023, and perhaps longer, the financial stability of Russia remains uncertain.
December 15, 2022
Incorrys expects limited decline in Russian supply in next 1 – 1.5 years and Russia will remain one of worlds largest oil exporters. Due to the financial issues facing Russia (from sanctions, the cost of the war on Ukraine and inability to access capital in western markets) coupled with the lack of new western technologies, Incorrys expects Russian oil production will decrease significantly over the coming years as little to no new development is expected to occur.
October 27, 2022
The cost of Russian oil in USD/Bbl for 2012, H1, 2022, and H2, 2022. Since Russia’s costs are not on a ‘full cycle’ cost basis like North America, Incorrys calculated an equivalent 2021 cost of the US Permian Basin for comparison. The total cost of Russian oil reaches USD $40-45/Bbl in 2021 including the cost for development of new fields however, as most new fields are located in remote areas of Siberia, they require significant infrastructure investment. The total cost of oil in Russia without new field development is comparable to costs in the Permian and other US Tight Oil basins.
October 25, 2022
Russia primarily produces conventional oil but also has a very large resource of Tight Oil although there currently is no active exploration. The largest oil producing region in Western Siberia which accounts for over half of Russian oil production. The largest potential Tight Oil formation is the Bazhenov Formation, which covers most of Western Siberia, although Incorrys believes that development of Bazhenov Shale will not proceed in the near future due to the high cost and lack of technology in Russia.
October 11, 2022
Incorrys believes that without western oil producers and oilfield service companies, Russia will not be able to increase their reserves base, maintain production, or reduce costs as most new fields require the latest technology to explore, develop and produce. While production from older fields will decline at a rate of up to 40%, technology Russia had previously acquired will work for a short while. However, as the drilling of new wells is always required to maintain or grow supply, a drop in production due to aging technological is expected to occur this year.
October 7, 2022
There are over 2,000 oil tanker ships worldwide of the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), Aframax and Suezmax classes. By comparison, Russia’s Sovcomflot fleet only consists of about 60 of the same class of vessels with an additional 60 ships designed to transport refined products and to shuttle crude oil from offshore platforms to the coast. If sanctioned Russian oil needs to be redirected to Asia (primarily India and China) there will be a need for an additional 120 vessels of varying sizes, including VLCC.
October 7, 2022
Russia exports crude oil from four main areas: the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Pacific Coast and the Arctic. Russia has approximately 64 oil terminals although only a few of them are considered large export facilities. Shortly after European oil sanctions take effect by the end 2022, Russia would have to redirect marine traffic away from Europe to Asia, primarily. Discusses shipping transit times, tanker rates, and additional transportation costs to India and China for oil diverted from Europe.
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Today, the biogas market is not very large, but is expected to develop faster in coming years as demand in various applications increases (i.e., electricity, heat, vehicle fuel, upgraded biogas, and cooking gas). Incorrys expects this renewable resource to grow at an average annual rate of 5% to 2030 with power capacity exceeding 35 GW and generation reaching 1000 TWh in 2030. Biogas could be used to support intermittent renewable electricity from wind and solar.
Global wind generation capacity grew 5-fold from 180 GW in 2010 to 910 GW in 2022. Capacity is expected to exceed 1 TW during 2023 and potentially eclipse 2 TW by 2030. China is expected to account for almost 50% of the new capacity and will lead in both onshore and offshore builds. Total worldwide wind generation increases from 2150 TWh in 2022 to possibly 5500 TWh in 2030. This is about 20% lower than previously forecast due to expected delays in some projects, mainly in Europe.
Canadian natural gas export growth will be driven primarily by West Coast LNG exports, although the expansion of some pipelines into the US Pacific NW and New England regions does provide additional outlets for Canadian gas. As western Canadian producers gear-up in anticipation of the start of BC LNG exports, Incorrys believes domestic and export market access will be important to maintain or grow production. This analysis reviews and forecasts Canadian natural gas exports to 2035, by export point, and forecasts natural gas prices and basis differentials at key North American pricing points.
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