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North American Oil Cost
This report includes an analysis of full cycle costs of new oil wells drilled during the period Q1 2022 through to Q3 2024 for major growth basins in both the US and Canada, and an updated resource cost curve. The Report Includes detailed charts and description in PDF format and numerical data in Excel format.
US Oil Supply Forecast
This report includes a forecast of US crude oil, lease condensate and associated gas production to 2040. The Report Includes detailed charts and description in PDF format and numerical data in Excel format.
Reports For Subscribers
April 2025
North American Natural Gas Full Cycle Cost and Resources
This report provides an analysis of full cycle costs of new natural gas wells drilled during the period Q1 2022 through to Q3 2024 for major growth basins in both the US and Canada, including updated resource cost curves for both North America and Western Canada. Liquids uplift significantly affects full cycle costs in major US and Canadian basins with the liquids rich Duvernay in western Canada having the highest liquids uplift of USD $2.31/Mcf followed by US Utica at USD $1.53/Mcf. Total North American natural gas resource life is 66 years at full cycle costs of USD $5/Mcf or less, 53 years at full cycle costs of USD $4/Mcf or less, and 23 years at USD $3/Mcf or less.
January 2025
North American GHG Emissions Forecast
While most countries are reducing emissions to battle climate change globally, they continue to rise driven primarily by significant increases in China and, to a lessor extent, India. The Europe Union (EU) recently announced a proposal recommending an economy-wide cut in emissions of 90% below 1990 levels by 2040. The US has seen total emissions decline over 15% between 2006 and 2022 as they shutter coal power generation. Canada’s total GHGs have decreased recently although increases in Alberta have slowed the downward trend.
January 2025
US Natural Gas Production to 2040
The report provides Incorrys’ detailed gas production outlook for the major US gas supply basins and an overall roll-up of North American dry-gas production. US dry natural gas production grew from about 59 Bcf/d in 2010 to over 90 Bcf/d in 2023. Looking out to 2040, Incorrys forecasts natural gas production to continue to grow reaching almost 120 Bcf/d, up 29% from 2023, matching the forecasted growth in US demand. Liquids rich areas in Marcellus Pennsylvania SW and Utica will remain the primary focus of natural gas drilling over the forecast period.
October 2024
North American Oil Full Cycle Cost
This report includes an analysis of full cycle costs of new oil wells drilled during the period Q1 2022 through to Q3 2024 for major growth basins in both the US and Canada, and an updated resource cost curve. Full-cycle cost of oil produced from US Tight Oil wells drilled during Q1 2022 through to Q3 2024 ranges from USD $48.50/Bbl in the Permian Delaware to USD $69.80 in Permian Central. The Permian Basin has the lowest full-cycle costs for Tight Oil wells.
August 2024
US Oil Supply
Comprehensive analysis and forecast of US crude oil, lease condensate and associated gas production by major Tight Oil basins, other miscellaneous basins, plus US offshore and Alaska. Total US oil production increased almost 8% from 2022 to 2023 to almost 13 MMBbl/d. Incorrys is forecasting total US oil production to continue to increase, peaking in 2032 at over 14 MMBbl/d. Production then begins a slow decline and approaches the 2023 level of 13 MMBbl/d by 2040.
June 2024
Canadian Oil Supply
In-depth analysis and forecast of Canada’s oil supply including conventional onshore by basin, east coast offshore, and Alberta’s oil sands (by mining and in situ) by project. Total Canadian oil production has been increasing at a healthy 5.5% annually between 2015 and 2023. Incorrys is forecasting total Canadian oil production to continue to increase to 2028, albeit at a more modest 2% rate, from 4.3 MMBbl/d in 2023 to 4.7 MMBbl/d. Production then levels off through 2035.
March 2024
Natural Gas Power Generation Worldwide
Global natural gas power generation has more than doubled since 2000 from about 2700 TWh to over 6300 TWh in 2022. The US accounted for about a quarter of the total natural gas-fired power generation in 2022 (24%). Incorrys expects a slight increase in gas-fired power generation through 2030. Total growth might reach 4% (from just over 6300 TWh in 2022 to about 7000 TWh in 2030).
March 2024
World Copper Supply
Over the past decade, the leaders in copper mine production have remained unchanged with Chile accounting for 25% of global production, Peru at 10%, and China at 9%. However, in recent years, the Democratic Republic of the Congo has been actively increasing its contribution to global supply reaching approximately 10%.
February 2024
Coal Production and Power Generation Worldwide
Global coal production grew to 8300 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2021 and 2022, up about 12% from 7400 MTPA in 2010, led by China and India (combined for 62% of the total). Incorrys is forecasting global coal to be flat in coming years. Coal-fired generation capacity grew from 1300 GW in 2005 to 2246 GW in 2022 with China accounting for half (about 1100 GW) of the 2022 total.
December 2023
Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Markets
LNG use is expected to increase globally as natural gas replaces coal-fired generation and to provide energy security for many regions beset by supply disruption(s) brought on by the Russia/Ukraine conflict. The LNG market experienced a turbulent year in 2022 with global LNG trade increasing 7% from 2021 to about 400 mtpa, This increase was primarily driven by European imports as they competed with Asia for LNG cargoes to offset loses in Russian supply.
August 2023
Hydroelectric Power Generation Worldwide
Hydropower is one of the oldest, largest, and most reliable sources of renewable energy and is larger than all other renewables combined (wind, solar, bioenergy and geothermal), and ranks 3rd in the global power generation mix, behind coal and natural gas, representing about 15% of the worlds total. Incorrys does not expect big capacity increases going forward and is forecasting global hydropower capacity to increase from under 1400 GW in 2022 to just over 1600 GW in 2030; an increase of 230 GW (17%), 2% annually.
July 2023
Raw Materials for Batteries (Cobalt, Nickel, and Lithium)
Raw materials are essential to underpin worldwide production of Electric Vehicles (EV’s*) however, most raw materials used are also critical in other industrial applications. Although EV batteries include other materials, such as copper, we have focused on cobalt, nickel, and lithium as these are critical components for current battery technology. Based on Incorrys forecast of the number of battery electric vehicles (EVs), with significant investments in mining and refining, there will be a sufficient supply of Cobalt, Nickel and Lithium until at least 2030.
July 2023
Biogas Power Generation Worldwide
Today, the biogas market is not very large, but is expected to develop faster in coming years as demand in various applications increases (i.e., electricity, heat, vehicle fuel, upgraded biogas, and cooking gas). Incorrys expects this renewable resource to grow at an average annual rate of 5% to 2030 with power capacity exceeding 35 GW and generation reaching 1000 TWh in 2030. Biogas could be used to support intermittent renewable electricity from wind and solar.
July 2023
Wind Power Generation Worldwide
Global wind generation capacity grew 5-fold from 180 GW in 2010 to 910 GW in 2022. Capacity is expected to exceed 1 TW during 2023 and eclipse 2 TW by 2030. China is expected to account for over 50% of the new capacity and will lead in both onshore and offshore builds. Total worldwide wind generation increases from 2150 TWh in 2022 to 4500 TWh in 2030.
June 2023
Canadian Natural Gas Forecast to 2035
Canadian natural gas export growth will be driven primarily by West Coast LNG exports, although the expansion of some pipelines into the US Pacific NW and New England regions does provide additional outlets for Canadian gas. As western Canadian producers gear-up in anticipation of the start of BC LNG exports, Incorrys believes domestic and export market access will be important to maintain or grow production. This analysis reviews and forecasts Canadian natural gas exports to 2035, by export point, and forecasts natural gas prices and basis differentials at key North American pricing points.
May 2023
Solar Power Generation Worldwide
Solar power continues to see substantial year-over-year growth with the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of photovoltaic (PV) installations being 32% between 2010 and 2022. China not only dominates almost every stage of the solar panel industry, they also lead the world in both capacity additions and generation throughout the forecast period. Incorrys forecasts global solar capacity to more than triple between 2022-2030 from 1190 GW to 3800 GW with solar power generation increasing from 1250 TWh to 3900 TWh over the same period.
April 2023
Nuclear Power Plants Worldwide
Nuclear power has enjoyed a global renaissance since Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, and subsequent energy crisis, plus the push to decarbonize economies. In fact, some countries that had previously stated their intentions to avoid (i.e., China) or phase out (i.e., Sweden, South Korea) nuclear generation are now considering adding it back into their future generation plans. Growth of the industry is all but assured and, even accounting for expected delays in construction, Incorrys forecasts nuclear capacities will increase from 392 GW in 2022 to 477 GW in 2030.
April 2023
Electric Vehicles
The pace of electric vehicle (EV) growth from 2020 to 2026 is severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic that heavily impacted manufacturing, disrupted supply chains, and contributed to a shortage of both semiconductor chips (coupled with stiff competition from the computer industry) and raw materials. Incorrys now expects electric cars will reach cost parity with gasoline cars after 2026 leading to significant growth in electric car production. This analysis and forecast looks at the current global EV market, costs, battery charging dynamics, main issues, and forecast to 2030.
December 2022
Russian Oil Sanctions Explained
In 2021, the oil industry in Russia represented 15% GDP, 40% of exports and 45% of federal budget. Currently there is no full world-wide embargo of Russian oil although the US and UK stopped buying Russian oil early this year. EU implemented a ban on marine transportation services related to Russian crude oil delivered by tankers starting December 5, 2022. A similar ban on Russian petroleum products is expected to start on February 5, 2023. The topic paper describes how sanctions on Russian oil is expected to affect global oil markets.
April 2022
Replacement of Russian Energy Imports
In April 2022, the EU paid an average USD 1B per day for Russian Energy sources. The EU is planning gradual steps to reduce and eventually eliminate its reliance on crude oil, refined products, natural gas, and coal from Russia. In addition to the EU actions, other countries (including the UK, US, and Canada) are planning to or have already stopped receiving Russian energy.
February 2022
Canadian Natural Gas Exports to 2030
Western Canada natural gas has been in oversupply during the past 5 years, as producers have been able to increase production seemingly at will. Although producer spending has been neutered due to COVID pandemic uncertainty, Incorrys believes the importance of access to both domestic and export markets for Western Canada producers looking to maintain or grow production is paramount. This analysis will review and forecast Canadian Exports to 2030, by export point.
December 2021
Electric Vehicles:Â Industry Analysis and Forecast
The report include analysis of electric vehicle market and forecast to 2030:
- Electric vehicle stock, sales, and market share: history and forecast to 2030
- Pricing of electric vehicles’ batteries
- Analysis of Electric vehicle price vs. range, efficiency, and charging time
November 2021
Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) Markets
The report provides Incorrys detailed review of Worldwide LNG
– Overview of current LNG export and imports worldwide
– Forecast of US and Canadian flows to 2030
– Review of major LNG projects
October, 2021
Hydrogen in North America
The report provides Incorrys detailed review of Hydrogen production and transportation in North America
– Overview of renewable gas pricing
– Review of cost for different technologies: electrolyzing and steam methane reforming
– Hydrogen transportation options and costs
– Potential export cost of Hydrogen Ammonia (NH3) and Methylcyclohexane
September 2021
North American GHG emissions
The report provides Incorrys detailed review of North American Emissions:
– overview of US and Canada emissions in relation to world
– forecast US and Canadian emissions for the oil, natural gas, and electric generation sectors
August 2021
North American Oil and Gas Full Cycle Cost
The report includes analysis of full cycle cost for different oil and gas basins in North America:
– overview of full cycle cost components: finding and development cost, basis differentials, operating cost, royalties and taxes, overhead, and cost of capital
– full cycle cost of US Tight Oil and Conventional Oil basins
– full cycle cost of major natural gas basins
July 2021
North American Oil and Gas Price Forecast to 2030
The report provides natural gas and crude oil price forecast:
- Henry Hub Natural Gas Influences
- North American Gas Demand to 2030
- North American Gas Production to 2030
- Worldwide LNG Impacting Henry Hub
- WTI Oil Price and WCS Basis
June 2019
Impact of Carbon Tax on Canadian Natural Gas
The report provides Incorrys detailed review of the Impact of Carbon Tax on Canadian Natural Gas.
It includes review overall targets for Canadian emission reductions by sector and then focus on impacts to reaching targets to the natural gas sector:
- Canada’s GHG emission targets
- Canadian carbon tax overview and large emitters
- Canada’s provincial carbon schemes
- Canada carbon price impact on natural gas
- Methane emissions from oil and gas sector
May 2021
North American Natural Gas Demand to 2030
The report provides Incorrys detailed forecast to 2030 of demand for North American natural gas by sector:
- Core (Residential and Commercial)
- Overall Power Forecast by Sector and by Gas-Fired Power
- Industrial (including Oil Sands and Pipeline)
- LNG Exports.
April 2021
US Natural Gas Production to 2040
The report provides detailed gas production outlook for the major gas supply basins in the US and an overall roll-up for North American dry-gas production:
- Total North American natural gas forecast to 2040
- Detailed analysis of major US basin: Marcellus, Utica, Haynesville – production forecast, rig count, connections, initial productivity
- Other gas producing areas: Rockies, Mid Continent, US Gulf Coast
March, 2021
US Oil and Associated Gas Production to 2040
In 2020 US crude oil production dropped 8.6% from previous year due to lower oil prices and reduced demand. This report includes current trends and forecast of US Crude Oil and Associated gas production to 2040:
- Crude oil and associated gas production for major Tight Oil basins: Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford, DJ Niobrara
- US Offshore oil production outlook
- Alaska oil production
- Crude oil and associated gas production to 2040
January 2021
Canadian Natural Gas Demand
With continued development of natural gas resources, the premium for seasonal security has been reduced to near nil. The ability to bring on new production growth is now limited to ability to expand demand sources. This analysis will review and forecast to 2030 demand for Canadian natural gas by sector:
- Core (Residential and Commercial)
- Gas-Fired Power
- Industrial (including Oil Sands and Pipeline)
- LNG Exports.