February 21, 2024

Incorrys expects global coal will be flat in coming years (with increase from 2022 to 2030 on 3% – from 8318 MTPA to 8532 MTPA). Three nations—China, India, and Russia—are anticipated to sustain growth in their domestic coal production over the forecast period to meet escalating demand for power generation and industrial applications. China is expected to increase its production from 4273 MTPA to over 4440 MTPA by 2029, after which it is projected to stabilize due to the commissioning of new renewable facilities.

In Y2030 the China’s share in coal production will be 52% (almost the same as in Y2022). Within the framework of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), there was an initial aspiration to elevate coal production to 4100 MTPA by 2025. However, according to Incorrys’ forecast, this target is unlikely to be met. The forecasted adjustment underscores the dynamic nature of the energy landscape, reflecting the evolving priorities and strategies within the timeframe of the Five-Year Plan. India is poised for substantial growth, with coal production forecasted to rise from 900 MTPA in 2022 to 1520 MTPA by 2030. Its share will be increased from 11% in Y2022 to 18% in Y2030. Meanwhile, Russia is anticipated to see an increase in production from 400 MTPA to nearly 600 MTPA over the same period (its share will be increased till 7% – up from 5% in Y2022). Production is Indonesia and other regions anticipated to experience a steady decline. Australia is expected to maintain relatively stable production until a decline is projected around 2026. Meanwhile, the United States is forecasted to persist in its downward production trend until 2030.

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