Russian Oil Crudes
December 16, 2022
Schematic illustrating the 7 Russian crudes that trade; 5 light low sulphur oils and 2 heavier, high sulphur oils.
The most common one is Urals (based on volume), a blend of heavy and light oils, which trades at a large discount because of the high sulphur content.
Russian Oil Production
December 16, 2022
Annual Russian oil production (MMBbl/d) from 1992 to 2025. Production decreased almost 2 MMBbl/d in early 1990’s (-25%) due to a structural crisis in the Russian economy.
Production grew after 1998 and reached its peak of 11.5 MMBbl/d in 2019, an increase of about 5.5 MMBbl/d (over 80%). The recent drop in Russian oil production is due to the Covid-related slowdown in global oil demand.
US Imports of Russian Oil and Petroleum Products
December 16, 2022
US imports of Russian crude oil and petroleum products, by month, from 2019 through April 2022. Imports range from a low of 225 MBbl/d in February 2019 to a high of 850 MBbl/d in June 2021 – averaging over 550 MBbl/d over the time period.
President Joe Biden announced on March 8, 2022, that the US will ban imports of oil from Russia, along with refined petroleum products, natural gas and coal. Banning Russian oil had minor consequences on U.S. refineries, or Russia, as the oil destined for the U.S was redirected to other countries.
Summary of the EU Ban on Russian Oil
December 16, 2022
Map illustrates how the EU ban on Russian oil will impact each of the countries and which regions will still be able to access pipeline deliveries along the Friendship Oil Pipeline, deliveries that are exempt from the recently announced price cap.
The EU banned Russian crude oil delivered, by tankers, effective December 5, 2022 with a ban Russian petroleum products expected to start on February 5, 2023.
Russian Oil Export Worldwide
December 16, 2022
Russian global crude oil and petroleum product exports (including Naphtha, Gasoil, Vacuum gas oil , Fuel oil, and other), by month, for 2020-2021. Additional chart showing the average 2021 percentage of each.
In 2021, crude oil represented almost 2/3 of the total exports of these products followed by Gasoil at 13% and Naphtha at 7%.
How Russian Oil Revenue Affects the Russian Federal Budget
October 10, 2023
Russian budget projections for 2024 comparing the Russian Government forecast with that of a Low case scenario in trillion rubles (T RUB). Additional charts show the 2023 projected Russian expenditures and the impact on Russian revenue of changing prices and production.
The Russian budget very heavily depends on revenue from the energy sector; particularly from oil and gas. Of the total 2024 Russian federal budget revenue of 35 trillion rubles, 34% is expected to come from the energy sector. The Russian deficit, according to the 2024 budget, is expected to be around 1.6 trillion rubles – an optimistic scenario. Although the National Wealth Fund will be sufficient to finance the Russian economy and war efforts in 2024, and perhaps longer, the financial stability of Russia remains uncertain.
Russian Oil Production Forecast
December 15, 2022
Russian oil production forecast (2023-2025) comparing an optimistic Russian government scenario and a Low case Scenario – both going in opposite directions.
Due to the financial issues facing Russia (from sanctions, the cost of the war on Ukraine and inability to access capital in western markets) coupled with the lack of new western technologies, Incorrys expects Russian oil production will decrease significantly over the coming years as little to no new development is expected to occur.
Russian Oil Production Basins
October 25, 2022
Russia has four main oil production regions: Western Siberia, Volga-Ural and North Caucasus, Sakhalin, and Timano-Pechora. While Russia primarily produces conventional oil, they also have a very large resource of Tight Oil however, there currently is no active exploration.
A significant portion of Russian oil production, particularly in Timano-Pechora and Volga-Ural regions, are coming from mature fields where production from many wells is close to their economic limit. If older wells in such fields have to be shut-in, it will be impossible or uneconomical to restart these wells due to technical issues with well completion
Russian Oil Resources
October 11, 2022
Russian oil resources, in billions of barrels (B Bbls), broken down between Reserves & Contingent (recoverable oil from known accumulations but not considered to be commercial recoverable) Resources (143 B Bbls) and Prospective (yet-to-be discovered reserves) Resources (80 B Bbls).
Due to the sanctions against Russia following the invasion of the Ukraine, many of the western producers and service companies have left, or are planning to leave, Russia. While many producers have had to leave billions of dollars in stranded assets behind, the move will hinder Russia’s ability to take advantage of their new technologies and drilling techniques.
US Oil Production
International Oil Rig Counts
May 11, 2022
International oil rig counts (2019-2022) by main producing regions of Saudi Arabia, UAE, China offshore, Norway, and the UK. Additional chart showing the oil rig counts for the US and Canada.
The rig count usually acts as a leading indicator of expected oil production. Rig counts have remained flat in most large oil regions reporting rig count data.
US Oil Production
May 11, 2022
Monthly US oil production (MM Bbl/d) by major producing region since 2012.
The Permian basin is the largest producing region in the US accounting for almost 50% of the total; recently the Permian has averaged about 60% of the total. Bakken and Eagle Ford each represent about 20%.
Total US Oil Production
June 4, 2021
Total US oil production forecast to 2040 includes Permian, DJ Niobrara, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Alaska, Gulf of Mexico offshore, and other.
In 2020, about 60% of US Crude oil production came from tight oil basins: Permian, DJ Niobrara, Bakken, and Eagle Ford. US crude oil production will continue to grow until 2029 after which it is expected to begin to decline due to the maturity of the tight oil basins.
Total US Raw Associated Gas Production
June 7, 2021
Total US raw associated gas production forecast to 2040 from Permian, DJ Niobrara, Bakken, Eagle Ford, and other.
Raw associated gas production in the US more than tripled from 2010 to 2019 due to the increase in tight oil production. Total US raw associated gas production peaks in the 2027-30 time period before declining as the tight oil basins mature.
Total US Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production
June 7, 2021
Lease condensate is defined as field liquids production with API greater than 45 degrees from wells classified as oil or condensate.
Lease condensate production grew to 2,820 MBbl/d in 2020 from 1,070 MBbl/d in 2010 due to strong focus on drilling in condensate rich Tight Oil Basins.
Largest US Publicly Traded Oil and NGL Producers
September 28, 2023
Largest US publicly traded oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) producers in 2022 based on production reported in annual reports.
The largest producer is ConocoPhillips followed by ExxonMobil and Occidental Petroleum.
Bakken Tight Oil Production
May 28, 2021
Forecast to 2040 of Bakken tight oil production from the Williston Basin (located in North Dakota, Montana, and Canada). Additional charts show initial productivity (IP), estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), historical rig count, number of wells and a map of the region.
Active development of tight oil using horizontal wells and fracking started after 2010. Although the Willison basin extends into Canada it is less productive then the US portion and is not included.
Bakken Associated Gas Production
May 31, 2021
Forecast to 2040 of Bakken raw associated gas production from the Williston Basin (located in North Dakota, Montana, and Canada). Additional charts show initial productivity (IP),and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR).
Raw associated gas production reached its peak in 2019 and is expected to decline slightly over the next few years before recovery in 2023. It is expected to reach its new peak in 2030.
DJ Niobrara Tight Oil Production
May 31, 2021
Forecast to 2040 of DJ Niobrara tight oil production (located in northeast Colorado and Southeast Wyoming). Additional charts show initial productivity, (IP), estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), historical rig count, number of wells and a map of the region.
DJ Niobrara tight oil production is mostly volatile oil and condensate whose well productivity is lower than in other tight oil basins such as Permian and Bakken. .
DJ Niobrara Associated Gas Production
June 2, 2021
Forecast to 2040 of DJ Niobrara raw associated gas production (located in northeast Colorado and Southeast Wyoming). Additional charts show initial productivity, (IP) and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR).
Raw gas production reached a peak in 2019 and 2020, however, it is expected to decline over the next few years before recovering and reach a new peak in 2030.
Permian Oil Production
June 2, 2021
Forecast to 2040 of Permian tight oil production (located in west Texas and eastern New Mexico). Additional charts show initial productivity, (IP), estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), historical rig count, number of wells and a map of the region.
Permian is a major tight oil producing basin in US and drilling is performed towards many different formations including Spraberry, Wolfcamp, Bone Spring, and San Andres. Production is expected to recover quickly from the 2020 drop and reach its peak in 2027 before gradually declining due to maturity of the basin.
Permian Associated Gas Production
June 2, 2021
Forecast to 2040 of Permian associated gas production (located in west Texas and eastern New Mexico). Additional charts show initial productivity (IP) and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR).
Even though the Permian is a predominately a tight oil basin, it has become a major US gas producing area due to significant amount associated gas production. Production has increased rapidly and is forecast to continue to grow to its peak in 2028-2029.
Eagle Ford Tight Oil Production
June 3, 2021
Forecast to 2040 of Eagle Ford oil production (located in the southern are of Eagle Ford on the Texas Gulf Coast). Additional charts show initial productivity, (IP), estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), historical rig count, number of wells and a map of the region.
Eagle Ford consists of crude oil, condensate, and gas windows. Wells classified as oil produce condensate as well. Production peaked in 2015 and declined to 2020. Incorrys expects it to grow again post 2021 and recovery towards the previous peak in 2027.
Eagle Ford Associated Gas Production
June 3, 2021
Forecast to 2040 of Eagle Ford associated gas production (located in the southern are of Eagle Ford on the Texas Gulf Coast). Additional charts show initial productivity, (IP), estimated ultimate recovery (EUR), historical rig count, number of wells and a map of the region.
Eagle Ford raw associated gas production has seen steady increases to 2020 and is expected to continue to grow to its peak in the 2027-2029 range. Eagle Ford also has additional gas production from gas and condensate wells.
Gulf of Mexico Offshore Oil Production
June 7, 2021
Gulf of Mexico’s actual offshore oil production through 2020 and 3 forecast scenario’s to 2040; no change in permitting, some limitations in permitting, and no permitting.
Incorrys presents these three cases due to President Joe Biden, who in early 2021, temporarily stopped issuing new permits on federal lands, potentially impacting the Gulf of Mexico’s offshore production. The US Government is currently reviewing it’s leasing program.
Alaska Oil Production
June 7, 2021
Forecast to 2040 of Alaska oil production which began in 1977 in North Slope followed by South Slope 1981. Additional charts show initial productivity, (IP), number of wells, and a map of the region.
Currently development is very limited in Alaska and, due to the lack of a natural gas pipeline, associated gas is generally re-injected back into the ground. This forecast does not include the upside potential from the proposed Alaska LNG liquefaction facility.
Canadian Oil Production
Largest Canadian Publicly Traded Oil and NGL Producers in 2019
July 18, 2020
Largest Canadian publicly traded oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) producers in 2019 based on production reported in annual reports.
The largest producer is Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL) followed by Suncor and Cenovus.
Western Canadian Oil and Gas Royalty Rates
July 19, 2020
Western Canadian effective royalty rates for oil and gas are calculated based on security disclosure of largest Canadian oil and gas producers.
In Western Canada royalties are calculated based on complex formula, which include production, oil and gas prices, as well as various incentives.