Brent / Urals Differential 2022-2025

March 13, 2025

Weekly comparison between the Brent and Russia’s Urals crude oil prices from February 2022 through February 2025.

The Brent price over the past 8 months has averaged about USD $84/Bbl as compared to the Russian Urals price of about USD $73 /Bbl over the same time period; a price differential of USD $11/Bbl. The differential decreased from USD $13/Bbl in early February, 2022 to a peak at just over USD $35/Bbl in mid-April, 2022.

Since April 2022, the Urals price has been about 70% of Brent. If the Brent price reaches around $72, Russian oil revenue will be insufficient to balance the Russian budget; if Brent drops below $60, a significant portion of Russian oil production will become uneconomical. This assumes that the Urals/Brent ratio remains around 0.85 – 0.90.
Incorrys believes that Urals/Brent differential will continue to narrow in next half year due to: decline of Russian oil export volumes, successful redirection of Russian oil export to Asia and, in particular, by utilizing Russian tanker fleet.