May 3, 2024

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Recent increases in GHG emissions from the natural gas sector are driven by increasing production required to meet the demand of the LNG Canada export terminal expected to begin in 2025.

Light and Heavy conventional oil are expected to decline slightly while Frontier (Newfoundland offshore) is expected to remain relatively flat.

The oil sands mining sector emissions intensity is expected to benefit from Suncor’s switching from coke boiler to cogeneration in late 2023. Overall mining emission intensity drops 33% during the forecast period.

Oil sands in-situ emissions intensity is also expected to drop (18%) due to switching to solvent/steam mixtures for subsurface efficiencies plus carbon capture and storage solutions.

Incorrys Methodology to Forecast Emissions