October 21, 2021
Growth in natural gas production (LNG exports to replace International coal-fired power) is expected to drive oil and gas sector increases of 25 MtCO2e.
Closing of coal-fired capacity and replacing with natural gas units reduce electricity sector emissions 6.2%.
Transportation sector declines 28.5 MtCO2e driven by increased EV market share to 15% of total vehicle registration and strengthening Canadian fuel standards biofuel content.
Building emissions remain static as overall housing stock increases 14%.
Agriculture sector remains flat.
Other sector declines 26.5 MtCO2e as forest projects and cropland conversions drive emissions lower.
Although there is a downtrend after 2023, and assuming GDP grows at 2.2%/year, Incorrys expects Canada to fall well short of achieving current 2030 targets outlined in the latest budget.
Incorrys Methodology to Forecast Emissions