October 21, 2021

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Growth in natural gas production (LNG exports to replace International coal-fired power) is expected to drive oil and gas sector increases of 25 MtCO2e.

Closing of coal-fired capacity and replacing with natural gas units reduce electricity sector emissions 6.2%.

Transportation sector declines 28.5 MtCO2e driven by increased EV market share to 15% of total vehicle registration and strengthening Canadian fuel standards biofuel content.

Building emissions remain static as overall housing stock increases 14%.

Agriculture sector remains flat.

Other sector declines 26.5 MtCO2e as forest projects and cropland conversions drive emissions lower.

Although there is a downtrend after 2023, and assuming GDP grows at 2.2%/year, Incorrys expects Canada to fall well short of achieving current 2030 targets outlined in the latest budget.

Incorrys Methodology to Forecast Emissions