May 3, 2024

Canadian Emissions 2000-2030

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Growth in natural gas production is expected to drive oil and gas sector increases of 25 Mt CO₂eq. However, Canadian LNG exports to replace International coal-fired power would provide net decrease in global GHG emissions. Closing coal-fired power generation and replacing with natural gas units reduce electricity sector emissions by 6%. The transportation sector declines 28.5 Mt CO₂eq driven by increased EV market share to 15% of total vehicle registration and strengthening Canadian fuel standards biofuel content. Building emissions remain static as overall housing stock increases 14%. Agriculture sector remains flat. Other sector declines 26.5 Mt CO₂eq as forest projects and cropland conversions drive emissions lower. Assuming GDP grows at 2.2%/year, Incorrys does not foresee Canada meeting current 2030 target outlined in the 2021 Budget.

Incorrys Methodology to Forecast Emissions

See also:
Canadian GHG Emissions by Province 1990, 2005, 2019-2022
Canadian Oil and Gas Emissions 2000-2030