Canadian Oil Production Forecast 2015-2035
July 8, 2024
Historical and forecast to 2035 of Canadian oil supply (MMBbl/d) by type; conventional onshore, offshore, and oil sands (further split between mining and in situ).
Looking to 2035, Incorrys is forecasting total Canadian oil production to continue to increase at about 2% annually through 2028 before leveling off for the remainder of the forecast period, averaging just 0.8% annually.
Alberta Oil Production Forecast (excl Oil Sands)
July 9, 2024
Historical and forecast to 2040 of Alberta oil supply (MMBbl/d) by major basin (excluding oil sands) which includes wells classified as volatile oil, oil and heavy oil but excludes wells classified as Condensate and Bitumen.
Clearwater remains the largest source of Alberta conventional and tight oil production, accounting for over 50% of future production through 2040.
Canadian Oil Exports by Rail 2012-2023
July 10, 2024
Monthly Canadian oil exports shipped by rail between 2012 and 2023.
Due to continuing Alberta pipeline export capacity constraints, some Canadian oil must be transported by rail to US refineries, primarily in the US Gulf Coast (USGC) region.
Offshore Oil Production and Forecast
July 11, 2024
Total Canadian offshore oil production and forecast by major field. Additional chart showing individual field production.
Canadian Offshore oil production, located east of Newfoundland, grew rapidly from 220 to 260 MBbl/d in 2019. Offshore production has since dropped to 200 MBbl/d in 2023 due to well declines for all projects. Although Incorrys is forecasting additional supply from White Rose in 2026 generally, offshore oil production continues to decline throughout the forecast period.
Weighted Gross Revenue by Company 2022
July 11, 2024
Weighted gross oil revenue (USD/Bbl) by company per barrel of oil production.
The 2022 weighted gross revenue per company ranged from a high of 66 USD/Bbl for Bighorn Energy to a low of 26 USD/Bbl for Sunshine Oil Sands.
Royalty Rate by Company 2022
July 11, 2024
Royalty rates, the percentage of revenue that companies pay to the government and/or landowners for the right to extract oil, by company for 2022.
Royalty rates range from a high of 40% for Bighorn Energy to a low of under 9%. Rates can differ among different companies reflecting different contractual agreements.
Canadian Oil Rig Count by Province
July 11, 2024
Historical monthly Canadian oil rig count by province (Alberta and Saskatchewan) from 2012 through Q1 2024.
On average, Alberta accounted for about 70% of the total annual average rig count vs 30% Saskatchewan. Rig count is heavily influenced by prevailing market conditions and prices.
Canadian Oil Rig Count by Trajectory
July 11, 2024
Historical annual average Canadian oil rig count by trajectory (Horizontal and Vertical) from 2012 through Q1 2024.
The total annual rig count dropped from a high of 250 in 2012 to just 59 in 2016. The rig count recovered slightly in 2017 and 2018 before reaching a low of 44 in the 2020 pandemic year. It has since recovered to 130 rigs in Q1 2024. Horizontal drilling has been the primary focus as it results in higher well productivity and recoverable oil per well.
Clearwater Oil Production
July 12, 2024
Clearwater oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.
Clearwater oil production grew from about 200,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to 300,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to continue to grow post 2023 peaking at over 390,000 Bbl/d in 2031 before declining to 2023 levels by 2040.
Cardium Oil Production
July 12, 2024
Cardium oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.
Oil production from the Cardium declined from about 65,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to 36,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to grow post 2023 to almost 45,000 Bbl/d before declining to 40,000 Bbl/d in 2040.
Montney Oil Production
July 12, 2024
Montney oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.
Montney oil production grew from about 20,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to over 50,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to continue to grow post 2023 peaking at almost 60,000 Bbl/d by 2028 before declining to 37,000 Bbl/d in 2040.
Alberta Central Oil Production
July 16, 2024
Alberta Central oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.
Alberta Central oil production grew from about 23,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to 30,000 Bbl/d. Incorrys is forecasting production to continue to grow post 2024 peaking at 34,000 Bbl/d by 2028 before declining to under 25,000 Bbl/d in 2040.
Alberta East Heavy Oil Production
July 16, 2024
Alberta East Heavy oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.
Alberta East Heavy oil production has steadily declined from 160,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to about 60,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to increase slightly in 2024 before declining to 25,000 Bbl/d in 2040.
Alberta North Oil Production
July 16, 2024
Alberta North oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.
Alberta North oil production declined from over 140,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to about 70,000 Bbl/d in 2020 before rebounding to 90,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to increase to over 120,000 Bbl/d in 2029 before dropping to 70,000 Bbl/d in 2040.
Alberta West Central Oil Production
July 16, 2024
Alberta West Central oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040. Additional charts on Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.
Alberta West Central oil production declined from 65,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to a low of about 45,000 Bbl/d in 2016 before rebounding in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to increase to almost 70,000 Bbl/d in 2029 before dropping to 40,000 MBbl/d in 2040.
Largest Canadian Publicly Traded Oil and NGL Producers in 2023
July 24, 2024
Largest Canadian publicly traded oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) producers in 2023 based on production reported in annual reports.
The largest producer is Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL) followed by Suncor and Cenovus.
Western Canadian Oil and Gas Royalty Rates
July 24, 2024
Western Canadian effective royalty rates for oil and gas are calculated based on security disclosure of largest Canadian oil and gas producers.
In Western Canada royalties are calculated based on complex formula, which include production, oil and gas prices, as well as various incentives.