July 16, 2024

Alberta North oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040, including Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.

Location: Alberta

Number of oil wells drilled since 2010: ~ 2,300

Average New Well Initial Productivity in 2023: 316 Bbl/d

Peak Production: 2022 (339 MBbl/d)

• Alberta North oil production declined from over 140,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to about 70,000 Bbl/d in 2020 before rebounding to 90,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to increase to over 120,000 Bbl/d in 2029 before dropping to 70,000 Bbl/d in 2040.

Alberta North Oil IP

• Well Initial Productivity (IP) grew from about 160 Bbl/d in 2014 to a high of almost 340 Bbl/d in 2022. Initial productivity declined into 2023 and is expected to gradually drop to under 270 Bbl/d by 2040.

Alberta North Oil EUR

• Well EUR grew from over 225 MBbl in 2014 to 370 MBbl in 2018, settling at about 240 MBbl in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting well EUR to decline slightly over the next 3 years to 225 MBbl in 2028.

Alberta North Oil Number of Wells

• The number of new wells in the Alberta North oil region dropped from 250 wells in 2014 a low of 15 in 2020 before rebounding to 150 in 2023.
• Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to increase to 200 by 2027 before declining to about 90 in 2040.

Alberta North Oil Drilling Locations

• Wells drilled in Alberta North area since 2000.

Note: Wells targeting the Clearwater formation are not included.
Note: Wells classified as Bitumen are not included.
Note: Commingled wells are included.
Note: Other target formations include Wabiskaw-McMurray, Pekisko, Keg River, Upper Grand Rapids, Bluesky-Getting, and others.

See Also:

Canadian Oil Production Forecast to 2035
Alberta Oil Production Forecast to 2040 (excl Oil Sands)
Canadian Oil Rig Count by Province 2012-2024