May 3, 2024
Growth in natural gas production is expected to drive oil and gas sector increases of 25 Mt CO2eq. However, Canadian LNG exports to replace International coal-fired power would provide net decrease in global GHG emissions.
Closing coal-fired power generation and replacing with natural gas units reduce electricity sector emissions by 6%.
The transportation sector declines 28.5 Mt CO2eq driven by increased EV market share to 15% of total vehicle registration and strengthening Canadian fuel standards biofuel content.
Building emissions remain static as overall housing stock increases 14%.
Agriculture sector remains flat.
Other sector declines 26.5 Mt CO2eq as forest projects and cropland conversions drive emissions lower.
Assuming GDP grows at 2.2%/year, Incorrys does not foresee Canada meeting current 2030 target outlined in the 2021 Budget.
Incorrys Methodology to Forecast Emissions
