Western Canadian Natural Gas Production Forecast to 2040

October 22, 2026

The chart shows WCSB dry gas production from both Alberta and British Columbia. WCSB production is demand-driven: total dry gas demand is supplied from various plays based on full-cycle cost. Plays with the lowest full-cycle costs, such as the Montney, Duvernay, and Alberta Deep Basin, are developed first. Higher cost dry gas plays including Horn River and Liard will not attract investment unless in-play demand from AI is realized.

Most production in 2040 comes from the Montney play (70%), up from 48% in 2025.
Incorrys defines Alberta Deep Basin production as production from the Cardium, Doe Creek, Dunvegan, Cadotte/Paddy, Notikewin, Falher, Wilrich, Glauconitic, Bluesky, Gething, Cadomin, Nikanassin, Doig, Halfway, Rock Creek, and Spirit River formations located within the Alberta Deep Basin fairway.
Other Alberta production comes from conventional plays in southern, northern, and southeastern Alberta, including the aforementioned formations located outside the Alberta Deep Basin and Montney fairways.
Almost all production in British Columbia comes from the Montney. However, around 5% comes from high-cost legacy conventional formations, the Jean Marie, the BC Deep Basin, and other plays.

References:

“APD – Petrinex.” Petrinex.Ca, 2026, https://www.petrinex.ca/public-data/apd/. Accessed 22 Oct. 2026.

“ST103.” Alberta Energy Regulator, 6 Oct. 2026, https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance-reports/statistical-reports/st103. Accessed 22 Oct. 2026.

“Alberta Table of Formations | Alberta Geological Survey.” Alberta Geological Survey, 9 May 2019, https://ags.aer.ca/publications/all-publications/alberta-table-formations. Accessed 22 Oct. 2026.