January 11, 2024

Russia’s strategic objective is at least 100 million mtpa of LNG exports, tripling 2022 output of 33 mtpa.

Europe is the main target with LNG delivered primarily from Yamal LNG.

Portovaya LNG T1 (1.5 mtpa) started commercial operation in November 2022.

Under construction Ust-Luga and Arctic LNG 2, will double Russia’s current capacity to over 65 mtpa.

Ust-Luga’s 13 mtpa facility is expected to be the largest in northwestern Europe.

The invasion of the Ukraine has cast doubt on the Russian LNG development as Western sanctions disable Russia’s ability to access Western financing.

Russia lacks LNG specialists and advanced technology to expand output. For instance, projects will have difficulty sourcing domestically produced turbines to replace imports.

Incorrys expects additional delays in Russian LNG capacity.

Only the first phase (1 train) of Ust-Luga is expected to be operating by 2025. Linde (engineering, procurement and construction management company (ECPM)) withdrew from the project in 2022.