May 1, 2024

Based on 2022 IEA data, the North American power industry emitted 1.5 million Mt CO₂eq per TWh with coal accounting for about 55% of the total followed by natural gas at 45% (oil and other were negligible).

Multiple factors affect CO₂eq emission from the electricity sector, including:

1)  Electricity generation portfolio (i.e., whether recent trends in coal, natural gas, and renewable energy use continue)

2) Fossil fuel prices, particularly natural gas, and renewable energy technologies

3) Federal and/or state policy developments

4) Economic impacts (e.g., level of GDP growth)

5) improvements in demand-side energy efficiency (e.g., commercial and residential electricity use).

Incorrys expects that CO₂eq emissions in the electricity sector will decrease by 63% in 2030 compared to 2005 levels and will be below 900 Mt CO₂eq.

Coal fired generation will drop by over 80% and replaced by increases in both natural gas increase (17%) and renewables (83%).

Sources:

Congressional Research Service. May, 18,2023. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the U.S. Electricity Sector: Background, Policies, and Projections. Available at  https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/R47561.pdf.

IEA. How much of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions are associated with electricity generation? Available at https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=77&t=11#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20emissions%20of%20carbon,of%20about%204%2C964%20(Mt CO2eq CO2eq).