June 15, 2023
Generation Forecast (TWh)
Global electricity demand declined slightly in 2021 due to the Covid pandemic. It has rebounded slowly into 2023 and the growth is expected to accelerate going forward, primarily driven by renewables. Global generation reaches 29000 TWh in 2030 – up 25% from 2023.
China will account for a third of global electricity demand in 2030 and, combined with strong growth in other parts of Asia, this region will make up more than half of global electricity demand. Europe and North America will also grow steadily although their share of global demand will decline as Asia’s expands.
Incorrys forecasts solar generation to increase from 1250 TWh in 2022 to 7200 TWh in 2030 and will account for 24% of global electric generation.
2030 Market Share
Incorrys expects China to maintain its top position in solar power generation in 2030 reaching 3200 TWh. This will see China’s market share increase to 45%.
The US 2030 market share is also expected to increase slightly to 20%, 2nd highest. India, at 8%, surpasses Japan and claims 3rd in 2030, potentially reaching 10%.
Germany and Japan could see a decrease in market share below 5% (Incorrys is forecasting just 3%).
1.IEA, 2022, September Renewable Electricity. Renewable Electricity – Analysis – IEA
2.World Economic Forum (2023, February, 9). Renewables will be world’s top electricity source within three years, IEA data reveals. Renewables will be the world’s top electricity source within years | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
3.IEA (2021, December), Renewables 2021 Analysis and forecast to 2026. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/5ae32253-7409-4f9a-a91d-1493ffb9777a/Renewables2021-Analysisandforecastto2026.pdf
4.Rystadenergy (2022, November, 30), World’s largest electricity consumer: China’s power sector ripe for rapid decarbonization. https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/world-s-largest-electricity-consumer-china-s-power-sector-ripe-for-rapid-decarbon