May 11, 2022

The charts show rig counts in selected oil producing regions. The rig count usually acts as a leading indicator of expected oil production. Rig counts have remained flat in most large oil regions reporting rig count data. The exception is the US, where the rig count has been growing since September 2020, although still below pre-covid levels. US Tight Oil production is expected to grow and reach over 9 MM Bbl/d by September 2022 and exit 2022 at 9.5 MM Bbl/d, up from 8.5 MM Bbl/d in April 2022.

Canadian oil production is expected to grow by 0.2 MM Bbl/d before then end of 2022 mostly due to oil sands production growth accessing the recently re-opened line 3 pipeline capacity. The Fort Hills oil sands mining project, currently operating at 50% of capacity, is expected to begin to produce closer to design capacity of 0.2 MM Bbl/d.

According to the EIA, total world oil and condensate production in 2022 will be 100.2 MM Bbl/d, up from 95.6 MM Bbl/d in 2021. In 2023 world production will continue to increase to 102.2 MMBbl/d.

Source: Baker Hughes

Some countries, including Russia, don’t provide comprehensive periodic report of rig count