July 16, 2024

Alberta West Central oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040, including Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.

Location: Alberta

Number of oil wells drilled since 2010: ~ 1,900

Average New Well Initial Productivity in 2023: 368 Bbl/d

Peak Production: 2022 (446 MBbl/d)

• Alberta West Central oil production declined from 65,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to a low of about 45,000 Bbl/d in 2016 before rebounding in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to increase to almost 70,000 Bbl/d in 2029 before dropping to 40,000 MBbl/d in 2040.

Alberta West Central Oil IP

• Initially Productivity grew from about 300 Bbl/d in 2014 to a high of almost 450 Bbl/d in 2022. Initial productivity declined into 2023 and is expected to gradually drop to just over 300 Bbl/d by 2040.

Alberta West Central EUR

• Well EUR averaged just over 210 MBbl between 2014 and 2022 before dropping to 185 MBbl in 2023. EUR finally settled at about 240 MBbl in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting well EUR to decline slightly over the next 3 years to 175 MBbl in 2028.

Alberta West Central Oil Number of Wells

• The number of new wells in the Alberta West Central oil region dropped from 240 wells in 2014 to under 100 in 2023.
• Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to increase to about 125 by 2028 before declining to just over 50 in 2040.

Alberta West Central Oil Drilling Locations

• Wells drilled Alberta West Central area since 2000.

Note: Wells targeting Montney, Duvernay, and Cardium formations are not included.
Note: Commingled wells are included.
Note: Wells classified as Condensate are not included.
Note: Other target formations include Charlie Lake, Beaverhill Lake, Dunvegan, Halfway, Doe Creek and others.

See Also:

Canadian Oil Production Forecast to 2035
Alberta Oil Production Forecast to 2040 (excl Oil Sands)
Canadian Oil Rig Count by Province 2012-2024