July 16, 2024

Alberta East Heavy oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040, including Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.

Location: Alberta

Number of oil wells drilled since 2010: ~ 7,500

Average New Well Initial Productivity in 2023: 112 Bbl/d

Peak Production: 2022 (118 MBbl/d)

• Alberta East Heavy oil production has steadily declined from 160,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to about 60,000 Bbl/d in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting production to increase slightly in 2024 before declining to 25,000 Bbl/d in 2040.

AB East Heavy Oil IP

• Well Initial Productivity grew from about 80 Bbl/d in 2014 to a high of almost 120 Bbl/d in 2022. Initial productivity declined into 2023 and is expected to gradually drop to under 100 Bbl/d by 2040.

AB East Heavy Oil EUR

• Well EUR declined from over 40 MBbl to under 35 MBbl from 2014-2019 before increasing to a high of 50 MBbl in 2022. Incorrys is forecasting well EUR to peak at almost 60 MBbl in 2024 before dropping to the 45 MBbl range in 2025 and 2026.

AB East Heavy Oil Number of Wells

• The number of new wells in the Alberta East Heavy oil region dropped from about 1000 wells 10 years ago to just 200 over the past couple of years.
• Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to grow slowly, reaching 240 wells in 2028 before declining to about 100 in 2040.

AB East Heavy Oil Drilling Locations

• Heavy oil wells drilled in Eastern Alberta since 2000.

Note: Wells targeting Clearwater formation are not included.
Note: Wells classified as Bitumen are not included, however many heavy oil wells in this area are developed by thermal methods.
Note: Commingled wells are included.
Note: Other formations include Colony, Cummings, Sparky, Lower Grand Rapids and others.

See Also:

Canadian Oil Production Forecast to 2035
Alberta Oil Production Forecast to 2040 (excl Oil Sands)
Canadian Oil Rig Count by Province 2012-2024