US Dry Natural Gas Production Forecast to 2040

February 10, 2025

Incorrys undertook a comprehensive, well-by-well and basin-by-basin analysis of raw natural gas production, which helped form the basis of our outlook for US dry gas production to 2040. This analysis indicates the US has almost 1100 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas resources with full cycle costs less than USD$4/Mcf. Due to this ample endowment, there are no constraints on supply, meaning that natural gas production to 2040 will respond to meet growing US demand.

Natural gas supply required to satisfy demand is allocated to production basins based on Incorrys’ proprietary models. The models consider full cycle costs, historical production data, rig count, geological data, and other relevant factors related to a particular basin. Marketable and dry gas production is calculated based on raw gas production and natural gas liquids (NGL) extraction data from EIA and Incorrys’ analysis. The model also includes the re-fracking or recompletion of existing wells.

US dry natural gas production grew from about 59 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2010 to almost 92 Bcf/d in 2023, a healthy 3.5% annual growth rate. In 2023, US dry natural gas production growth and development was focused primarily in Appalachia (Marcellus and Utica) accounting for 34% of total North American production, and Haynesville at 19% of the total. Associated gas production from major tight oil basins was 26 Bcf/d or 28% of total supply, primarily from the Permian Basin where oil focused drilling continues to expand.

Print CSV Excel Copy Download

Natural gas production is forecast to increase 29% through 2040, reaching almost 120 Bcf/d, a somewhat slower 1.5% annual growth rate, to satisfy projected US consumption of 675 Tcf over the period.

Key findings:

In 2023, almost 60% of US Natural Gas production came from Shale Gas basins: Eagle Ford, Marcellus, Utica, and Haynesville.
Liquids rich areas in Marcellus Pennsylvania SW and Utica will remain the focus of natural gas drilling over the forecast period. Marcellus and Utica production will peak around 2033-2038 and then begin to decline due to maturity of the basins.
Haynesville production is expected to reach over 18 Bcf/d around 2034, declining to just over 16 Bcf/d by 2040, due to maturity of the basin
Tight gas plays are expected to mature in the Rockies (including Power River and Green River) and in the Mid Continent (including Anadarko and Granite Wash). The emerging Mancos Shale will offer opportunity to grow gas production in the San Juan basin.
Permian gas focused activity will be muted over the next decade as associated gas production continues to grow and cost competitiveness improves post-2030. Oil and associated gas production growth may also be constrained due to availability of natural gas pipeline takeaway capacity.
Other* production will come from currently undeveloped plays in major existing basins. Total production from these areas will reach 14 Bcf/d in 2040 up from 2.6 Bcf/d in 2023, mainly due to growth in South and East Texas, North Louisiana, and potentially from some areas in the Rockies.

*Other includes:

Texas without Permian, Haynesville and Eagle Ford: primarily South and East Texas and Gulf coast, as well as Gulf of Mexico offshore.
Mid Continent: Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas without Anadarko, and production from existing wells in Woodford and Fayetteville shales.
Rockies without Green River and San Juan.
Appalachia without Marcellus, Utica: Ohio Shale, and conventional gas.

For more information, please contact:
Edward Kallio: e: ekallio@incorrys.com t: 403.978.1555
www.incorrys.com