July 5, 2021
San Juan, located in north New Mexico and south Utah, is a conventional and CBM (coal bed methane) basin which currently does have any significant development and is experiencing declining production. San Juan basin includes Mancos Shale. In 2016, the USGS estimated Mancos Shale resources at 66 Tcf . Incorrys estimates that Mancos shale will be developed after 2030.
Approximately 700 wells have been drilled in the San Juan basin since 2010 with an average new well initial productivity of 0.76 MMcf/d. The average first year decline in 2017 was 40%. San Juan production peaked in 2012 at 3.0 Bcf/d and is expected to continue declining to just 0.4 Bcf/d prio to 2030. After Mancos shale development begins in 2030, production will increase to 1.3 Bcf/d by 2040. Currently relative economics of Mancos Shale is less attractive compared to other Shale basins.
San Juan Map