February 15, 2025
Actual and Forecast (2010-2040) of San Juan raw natural gas production (Bcf/d), broken down between old and new wells.
- Peak production occurred in 2010 at 3.4 Bcf/d.
- San Juan raw gas production dropped steadily to about 1.8 Bcf/d in 2023, due to declines in coalbed methane production, and is expected to continue to fall for a few more years and then grow to 1.9 Bcf in 2030 and 2.4 Bcf/d in 2040.
- Until recently, most new drilling in San Jan basin was directed towards Coal Bed Methane (CBM).
- *TXO Partners announced that their portion of the Mancos Shale play in the San Juan Basin of New Mexico and Colorado has nearly 3 Tcf of natural gas potential.
San Juan Gas Well Initial Productivity
- In 2023, San Juan new well Initial Productivity (IP) was over 6.8 MMcf/d. It is expected to gradually decline during the forecast period to 5.7 MMcf/d in 2040.
San Juan Gas EUR
- Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) reached over 6 Bcf in 2023 and will slowing decline over the forecast period due to drilling beyond known sweet spots.
San Juan Well Count
- Approximately 1,250 wells have been drilled since 2010.
- The number of new wells in San Juan, primarily for coal bed methane, dropped from almost 340 in 2010 to about 30 in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to remain below 30 through 2027 and then start to grow reflecting the development of Mancos Shale.
- Over the 2020-2023 time period, the average lateral length was 5,400 ft with a average total depth of 9,000 ft.
San Juan Map
San Juan gas wells 1990-2023.
- The San Juan basin is located northwestern New Mexico extending into southwest Colorado.
- San Juan is the home of Mancos Shale, which is also present in the Piceance Basin, Colorado. New drilling in San Juan after 2027 is expected to be in the Mancos Shale.
See Also:
US Dry Gas Production Forecast to 2040
Initial Productivity (IP) of Major US GAS Basins 2023
Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) of Major US GAS Basins 2023
Well Depth of Major US gas Basins 2023
Reference: