February 14, 2025

Actual and Forecast (2010-2040) of Permian raw natural gas production (Bcf/d), broken down between old and new wells.

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  • Peak production occurred in 2023 at 4.0 Bcf/d.
  • Permian gas production grew to almost 4 Bcf/d in 2023 and is expected to grow steadily to about 5 Bcf/d in 2033. The growth rate increases thereafter reaching 9.2 Bcf/d by 2040 when Permian gas-focused production will become economical compared with other basins, and as oil focused activity tapers off.
  • Permian is primarily an oil basin which produces condensate and natural gas with varying liquids yield. Currently, most drilling is focused on oil, however, oil production will start to decline during the forecast period due to maturity of the basin. At this point, the drilling for natural gas is expected to increase.
  • Does not include associated gas.
  • Permian associated gas competes with Permian gas-focused activity for available pipeline takeaway capacity.

Permian Gas Well Initial Productivity

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  • In 2021, Permian new well Initial Productivity (IP) was 5.4 MMcf/d and declined to just over 5.0 MMcf/d in 2023. It is expected to increase going forward, more rapidly after 2033, reaching 10.9 MMcf/d by 2040.

Permian Gas EUR 

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  • Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) reached around 6.1 Bcf in 2022 and dropped to 5.4 Bcf in 2023. EUR is expected to continue fluctuate around 5.7 Bcf through 2030.

Permian Well Count

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  • Approximately 7,000 wells have been drilled since 2010.
  • The number of new wells in Permian dropped from almost 900 in 2010 to about 360 in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to hover around 330 until 2034 and then begin to increase, reaching 500 by 2040.
  • Over the 2020-2023 time period, the average lateral length was 8,700 ft with a average total depth of 17,400 ft.

Permian Gas Focused Map

Permian gas wells 1990-2023.

  • Permian is located in Texas and southeast New Mexico.

Incorrys analysis is based on historical data obtained from individual US states.

See Also:
US Natural Gas Rig Count by Basin 2012-2024
US Natural Gas Rig Count by Trajectory 2012-2024
Initial Productivity (IP) for Major US Gas Basins 2023
Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) for Major US Gas Basins 2023
Well Depth of Major US Gas Basins 2023
US Dry Natural Gas Production Forecast to 2040