Marcellus SW Raw Natural Gas Production Forecast to 2040

February 11, 2025

Actual and forecast (2010-2040) of Marcellus SW raw natural gas production (Bcf/d), broken down between old and new wells.

Peak production occurred in 2023 at 16.2 Bcf/d.
Marcellus SW gas production has grown steadily to 16.2 Bcf/d in 2023. The rapid growth is expected to slow going forward and production is expected to reach its peak of 17.7 Bcf/d in 2039.

Marcellus SW Raw Gas Well Initial Productivity

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In 2021, Marcellus SW new well Initial Productivity (IP) reached 15 MMcf/d and declined to about 14.5 MMcf/d in 2023. It is expected to slowly decline during the forecast to 12.5 MMcf/d by 2040.

Marcellus SW Raw Gas EUR

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Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) reached around 23 Bcf in 2022 and dropped to 21.2 Bcf in 2023. EUR is expected to continue to drop to 15.5 Bcf in 2030.

Marcellus SW Well Count

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Over 8,500 wells have been drilled since 2010.
The number of new wells in Marcellus SW dropped from over 900 in 2014 to just over 420 in 2023.
Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to fluctuate between 350 and 420 until 2037 and then start to slowly decline.
Over the 2020-2023 time period, the average lateral length was over 11,500 ft with an average total depth of almost 20,000 ft.

Marcellus Map

Marcellus gas wells 2020-2023.

Marcellus SW is located in Pennsylvania Southwest and West Virginia.
Marcellus SW produces liquids rich gas and includes a small ‘super’ rich area with liquids yield over 200 Bbl/MMcf.
Marcellus development in Pennsylvania benefits from zero severance tax.

Incorrys analysis is based on historical data obtained from individual US states.