Western Canadian New Well Forecast to 2040

December 02, 2025

Western Canadian New Well Forecast to 2040

Western Canadian new well forecast to 2040 uses Incorrys’ proprietary models. These models consider new well initial productivity and decline rates to determine how much new drilling producers require to meet forecast demand.

The chart therefore presents Incorrys’ forecast of Western Canada annual well counts by major producing plays to 2040. Between 2014 and 2024, the number of wells in the five major producing plays in Western Canada falls from over 1,700 to almost 1,400 as technology improves and well productivity increases. As a result, producers can drill fewer wells to deliver the same or higher gas volumes.

Looking ahead, Incorrys expects the number of new wells to remain relatively flat through 2040 at about 1,400 per year. However, the forecast shows a spike in 2031, driven by the anticipated launch of the second phase of the LNG Canada Project in Kitimat, BC. In addition, some new drilling will continue in other Western Canadian plays, including Central and Northwestern Alberta. Nevertheless, Incorrys expects the combined number of new wells in these other plays to stay below 300 per year.

References:
“Statistics and Data.”, Alberta Energy Regulator, 2024, https://www.aer.ca/data-and-performance-reports/statistical-reports/alberta-energy-outlook-st98/statistics-and-data