Eastern Triangle Exports Forecast to 2035

June 28, 2023

Growing Marcellus shale gas production takes away Canadian export market share into the US Northeast starting around 2009. The impact Chippewa and Niagara had in terms of dropping overall opportunities for US exports is due to those pipelines going from exporting to importing gas within a short 5 year span from the start of Marcellus shale production. Going forward, Incorrys expects slight growth in the eastern triangle from a couple of expansion projects although we do not expect any more large long-haul pipeline capacity increases in North America anymore. Instead, we are faced with chip-shot expansion projects using short compression capacity enhancements utilize existing pipelines to grow.

One being PNGTS Portland Xpress that connects at East Hereford and adds 180 MMcf/d into Maine and New England.
Another is the Iroquois Gas Transmission ExC Project, committed to by New York utility Con Edison, that will add 125 MMcf/d of incremental capacity through compression enhancements. This also provides incremental Eastern Triangle egress that provide Western Canada producers with options moving forward.

Map of the Eastern Triangle Region

TransCanada’s Northern Ontario Line (NOL) interconnects with the Eastern Triangle portion of the Mainline south of Station 116 at North Bay and extends to the southeast and southwest portions of the system to supply Ontario, Quebec and US export markets.