February 09, 2026
Dawn Basis Drivers
- Ontario plans to refurbish 8,000 MW of nuclear capacity at the Bruce and Darlington sites during 2016–2032 time period and close 3,000 MW of Pickering capacity after 2026. This requires imports into Dawn and a price premium to Chicago to attract supply in the winter.
- Dawn should be well supplied with Western Canada and Appalachia supplies going forward with summer/winter spreads narrowing slightly as TC Mainline tolls reset post 2026 settlement.
Note: The Dawn Hub, located in southwestern Ontario, is one of the largest integrated natural gas storage facilities in North America with with access to numerous supply sources, including western Canada, and demand centers throughout North America.
See Also:
Henry Hub Price Forecast to 2035
AECO-NIT Basis and Price Forecast to 2035
Chicago Basis and Price Forecast to 2035
Malin Basis and Price Forecast to 2035
Station 2 Basis and Price Forecast to 2035