February 09, 2026
AECO-NIT Basis Drivers
- Bullish 2025 fundamentals for Henry Hub pricing and increased Western Canada takeaway capacity via the start-up of LNG Canada saw WCSB basin production surge upwards. Teething trouble with LNG exports caused AECO-NIT basis to blowout in 2025. Reset of Western Canada activity levels in 2026 – narrows basis.
- Full year for first LNG Canada train and ramp up of train 2 in 2026 brings new LNG exports off Canada’s west coast – narrows basis.
- Increased Western Canadian pipeline connectivity, both intra-WCSB (Yellowhead Pipeline) and inter-WCSB (GTN expansion, Coastal GasLink, and TC Mainline lower tolls post 2026), provide additional outlets for Western Canada production – narrows basis.
- Increasing Canadian Carbon pricing throughout the forecast is a competitive disadvantage for Canadian producers in US markets – widens basis.
- Overall increase in Henry Hub pricing throughout the forecast increases the marginal cost (fuel cost) of moving gas between hubs – widens basis.
See Also:
Henry Hub Price Forecast to 2035
Dawn Basis and Price Forecast to 2035
Chicago Basis and Price Forecast to 2035
Malin Basis and Price Forecast to 2035
Station 2 Basis and Price Forecast to 2035