July 10, 2024
The chart shows total Western Canada oil supply, pipeline capacity, Alberta refinery demand, and potential pipeline expansions through 2030. In the near term, oil production in excess of demand and pipeline capacity will be transported to market by rail. Forecast observations:
- With regulatory uncertainty and government intervention, oil sands producers have switched from business development to an operations strategy. Therefore, Incorrys believes producers will take a cautious “wait and see” approach and production will lag pipeline developments.
- Enbridge flows are expected to dip near term due to TMX fill, then recover as production grows modestly. Enbridge will have highest flows during the forecast period.
- TransMountain Expansion completion in 2024 diverts rail and Enbridge Midwest directed flows toward West Coast/Asian markets.
- With incremental new pipe completed in 2022, rail shipments are not required until 2027.
Canadian Oil Pipelines
