July 15, 2024

Alberta Central oil production (MBbl/d) history and forecast to 2040, including Initial Productivity (IP), Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR), number of wells ,and map of the drilling region.

Location: Alberta

Number of oil wells drilled since 2010: ~ 1,700

Average New Well Initial Productivity in 2023: 219 Bbl/d

Peak Production: 2018 (323 MBbl/d)

• Alberta Central oil production grew from about 23,000 Bbl/d in 2014 to 30,000 Bbl/d. Incorrys is forecasting production to continue to grow post 2024 peaking at 34,000 Bbl/d by 2028 before declining to under 25,000 Bbl/d in 2040.

Alberta Central Oil IP

• Well Initial Productivity (IP) dropped from over 320 Bbl/d in 2018 to 220 Bbl/d in 2023. Initial productivity is expected to grow to almost 235 Bbl/d by 2027 before declining to 205 Bbl/d in 2040.

Alberta Central Oil EUR

• Well EUR grew from less than 100 MBbl in 2014 to 180 MBbl in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting well EUR to average about 185 MBbl over the next 3 years.

Alberta Central Oil Number of Wells

• The number of new wells in the Alberta Central region dropped from over 180 in 2014 to almost 70 in 2023. Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to grow slowly and peak at about 76 wells in 2028 before declining to about 40 in 2040.

Alberta Central Drilling Locations

• Well targeting Montney, Duvernay, and Clearwater formations are analyzed separately.

Note: Commingled wells are included.
Note: Other formations included: Upper Mannville, Belly River, Viking, Glauconitic, Rock Creek, Sparky, Blueridge, and others.

See Also:

Canadian Oil Production Forecast to 2035
Alberta Oil Production Forecast to 2040 (excl Oil Sands)
Canadian Oil Rig Count by Province 2012-2024