February 21, 2023
Retail Price of BEVs by Production Start Year
The 2023 estimated average price of currently available vehicles is USD $72,600 (excluding some of the very expensive models); this compares to Incorrys 2021 estimated average price of USD $70,360. Prices of BEVs, adjusted for inflation, have remained relatively flat over the last 3 years despite efforts to reduce the cost of batteries (the most expensive component of the electric vehicle).
Standard Deviation of Retail Price of BEVs
However, the standard deviation of retail prices for models introduced in 2022 and 2023 have increased compared to models introduced in 2021. This is partly related to the Covid pandemic as the introduction of some models had to be delayed.
Number of BEV Models on the Market Worldwide
Incorrys analyzed data for almost 300 models of battery electric vehicles (BEV) from 49 brands worldwide, either currently produced or expected to be produced in 2023. Hybrid or hybrid plugin vehicles are not included. The prices are shown before government incentives which differ from country to country. The prices estimated in Europe, particularly in Germany, Netherlands, and the UK, where the greatest variety of models are sold and then converted to USD based on average 2022 exchange rates. The list of models for 2023 may be incomplete as new models could be introduced later this year. The total number of models continue to increase year-over-year, although in many cases it is just a different modification to the same base model. For example, Mercedes has 38 modifications of 6 base models with varying battery capacity being one of the main modifications.
Battery Capacity of BEVs
Battery capacity has increased over 40% from about 55 kWh in 2020 production year models to almost 80 kWh for 2023 models. This increase is primarily driven by the introduction of more expensive luxury models.
Retail Price vs. Battery Capacity for BEVs
The retail car price per kWh of battery capacity is expected to remain flat at around USD $1000/kWh for the next few years. One of the main reasons for flat retail prices and prices per kWh of battery capacity is the significant demand of electric vehicles (EVs) and BEVs, which has led to long waiting waiting times for delivery. Many car buyers have been frustrated by delays of up to 18 months for the most popular models. The waiting time for EVs is much greater than for gasoline vehicles. For instance, wait times in the UK for the Audi model is around 18 months, for the Tesla Model 3 about 4 months, Tesla Model Y is 3.5 months, Volkswagen ID.x is about 15 months, Nissan Ariya is 4 months, Mercedes about 7.5 months, etc*. Currently, the electric car industry is experiencing a global shortage of semiconductor chips, which affects all models. At the same time, there is an increased demand for EVs, particularly as customers currently prefer EVs as a long-term investment. In such a business environment, manufacturers currently don’t offer incentives to reduce prices for EVs as their primary focus is on the production of the most expensive vehicles that provide a higher profit margin. Further, car dealers often increase retail prices of in-demand vehicles.
EV demand also depends heavily on subsidies. For example, sales of electric vehicles in Germany have fallen after subsidies were reduced, while the sales of fully electric vehicles fell 13.2% in January 2023 versus January 2022**. Incorrys estimates that the high demand for EVs in regions where subsidies are still in place will remain while the global shortage of semiconductor chips is expected to continue until 2024 or longer.
The global car industry is still in the process of transitioning toward EVs which is expected to take at least another 5-7 years. However, the price of EVs relative to those of gasoline vehicles are expected to decrease after 2024-2025, while battery capacity will continue to grow. Overall, customers now have a greater variety of BEV models to choose from ranging from more affordable to luxury.
- *Data from September 2022. Source: https://www.electrifying.com/blog/press/market-update-electric-car-waiting-times-remain-high-with-car-buyers-frustrated-by-delays-of-up-to-18-months-for-popular-models