Forecast of Emissions from US Petroleum Systems 1990-2030

May 1, 2024

US GHG emissions from exploration, production, transportation, and refining of petroleum systems includes mostly fugitive leaks and flaring. Productions is responsible for more than 90% of all GHG emissions in US petroleum systems. Emissions peaked in 2019 at over 100 Mt CO₂eq before declining 85 Mt CO₂eq in 2020. primarily due to the impact of the Covid pandemic. They have continued downward in 2021 and 2022, albeit a relatively slow rate reaching 75 Mt CO₂eq. Production accounted 98% of total CH4 emissions (including leaks, vents, and flaring) from petroleum systems in 2021-2022. Overall, the production segment CH4 emissions have decreased by 8 percent since 2020 levels due primarily to lower pneumatic controller emissions. Production emissions account for about 80% of the total CO2 emissions (including leaks, vents, and flaring) from petroleum systems in 2021 and 2022. In 2021, production segment CO2 emissions decreased by 17 percent from 2020 levels primarily due to decreases in associated gas flaring and miscellaneous production flaring in the Permian and Williston Basins. They decreased further in 2022 by an additional 7% from 2021. Incorrys expects US GHG emissions to drop slowly after 2025-26 due to Tight oil production growth and then decline after 2028.

Incorrys Methodology to Forecast Emissions

References:
1.EPA. 2023. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2021. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA 430-R-23-002. Available at
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks-1990-2021
https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-04/US-GHG-Inventory-2023-Main-Text.pdf
2.IEA. Oil 2023. Executive summary. Available at https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2023/executive-summary.
3.IEA. Crude Oil Production. August, 31, 2023. available at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_a.htm.
4.EIA. May, 24, 2022. Permian Basin Oil and Gas Output is Thought to Beat Record in June. Available at https://rextag.com/blog/EIA-Permian-Basin-Oil-and-Gas-Output-is-Thought-to-Beat-Record-in-June.