August 8, 2023
Growth in wind power generation, like solar, is being driven by the utilization of renewable energy to address climate change. The wind industry has grown significantly since 2010 and, although that growth slowed over the past couple of years due to the challenging economic environment and global supply chain disruptions, it is expected to accelerate once again going forward. Annual wind capacity additions are expected to double from about 80 GW in 2022 to almost 160 GW in 2030.
The main factors supporting this strength include:
- China’s commitment to further expand the role of renewables in its energy mix: China is forecast to represent about 50% of new wind installations over the next 5 years.
- Europe’s energy system reform: with strong growth in Germany, Spain, the UK, France, Italy and Turkey, the European onshore market is expected to boom again post 2023.
- An anticipated uplift in the US: over 90% of the expected 100 GW of onshore wind capacity being added in North America by 2030 will be in the US.
Another factor enabling continued growth in wind power generation is the decline in costs driven by continued technology and process improvements.
Wind Power Capacity Forecast 2022-2030
Incorrys expects global wind power capacity will break the 1 TW mark sometime in 2023 and will approach the 2 TW range by 2030. This is less than the previous forecast of 2500 GW with the slowdown due primarily to construction delays in Europe.
Looking at the split between onshore and offshore, onshore capacity increases from 850 GW in 2022 to 1750 GW in 2030 while offshore capacity grows from just 65 GW to 250 GW. Offshore growth does outpace onshore resulting in the offshore market share increasing from 7% in 2022 to over 12% in 2030.
Wind Capacity Forecast by Country
As in the solar power industry, China will lead the way in capacity additions growing at an average annual rate of 13% from about 400 GW to over 1000 GW in 2030. The US comes is a distant 2nd increasing 9% annually from just 140 GW to almost 300 GW. Germany ranks third growing from under 60 GW to about 130 GW.
2030 Market Share
Looking at the 2030 market shares of global wind capacity, the three largest countries combined will represent over 70% of the total. China actually increases their market share from 43% in 2022 to over 50% in 2030 while the US and Germany remain essentially unchanged over the same time period at 14% and 7% respectively.
China is the world’s leader in both onshore and offshore nacelle production facilities (the wind turbine housing located on top of the tower that contains all the generating components (gearbox, drivetrain, generator, and brakes)). Of the total onshore and offshore facilities currently operating, China accounts for 65%-70% while they account for 85%-90% of facilities now under construction or announced. Not only does China control the majority of nacelle production facilities, they also account for 70% of the production in key components like gearboxes, generators, castings, forgings, slewing bearings, towers and flanges.
Needless to say, with China accounting for the majority of the wind energy supply chain some regions, especially Europe, will likely experience supply shortages that will hinder planned growth in their wind power ambitions.