September 14, 2024
US crude oil production was steadily declining over the 1st 10 years of the 21st century from about 6 million barrels/day (MMBbl/d) to 5 MMBbl/d – most of which was produced by conventional “vertical” drilling. As new technology evolved, specifically horizontal drilling and fracking, vast amounts of shale oil and tight oil were unlocked resulting in a significant increase in production.
Total US crude oil and lease condensate production increased over 130% between 2010 and 2023, from 5.5 million barrels/day (MMBbl/d) to almost 13.0 MMBbl/d, coinciding with the shale “boom” that altered oil market dynamics. In 2023, almost 64% of US Crude oil production came from Tight Oil basins: Permian, Eagle Ford, DJ and Power River Niobrara, and Williston.
Looking ahead, US crude oil and lease condensate production is expected to continue to grow and peak at just over 14,000 MBbl/d by 2032. It remains flat until 2034 and then begins to decline, dropping back to 2023 levels by 2040, due to the maturity of Tight Oil basins.
2023 Share by Basin
In 2023, on a basin-by-basin basis, total Permian production accounted for 44% of the US total (Delaware at 24% and Midland at 20%). It is followed by the Gulf of Mexico offshore at 14%, Williston at 10%, and Eagle Ford at 9%. In total, these top 4 regions accounted for over 75% of total US oil production. The remaining 23% is supplied by DJ, Alaska, California, Powder River, Anadarko, Uinta, Appalachian, and other areas.
2040 Share by Basin
Incorrys is forecasting the 3 Permian areas, Delaware, Central Platform, and Midland, to supply all the growth to 2040 and will represent 54% of the total US oil supply. All other basins decline with the exceptions of the small Unita basin.
Crude Oil vs Condensate
Lease condensate production grew to 3,200 MBbl/d in 2023 (25% of the total) from just over 2,000 MBbl/d in 2015 (22%) due to focused drilling in condensate rich Tight Oil Basins. It is expected to remain in the 3,300 – 3,600 MBbl/d range over the forecast period.
Sources of Historical Data:
- EIA Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production by API Gravity
- Oil production data from individual states