September 14, 2024

US crude oil and lease condensate production grew from about 5,500 MBbl/d in 2010 to 13,000 in 2023. In 2023, almost 64% of US Crude oil production came from Tight Oil basins: Permian, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, and Bakken. US crude oil and lease condensate production will continue to grow and peak at just over 14,000 MBbl/d by 2032. It remains flat until 2034 and then begins to decline, dropping back to 2023 levels by 2040, due to the maturity of Tight Oil basins. Incorrys expects that in 2030, total Permian production will be 52% of all US oil production. – up from 44% in 2023. Willison will produce 9% of all oil – down from 10 % in 2023, while Eagle Ford will produce 7% – down from 9% in 2023.

Other includes:
Texas without Permian and Eagle Ford, Louisiana, Mississippi, primarily South Texas and Gulf coast – 630 MBbl/d in 2023*
Mid Continent: Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas without Anadarko – 332 MBbl/d in 2023*
Rockies: Utah and Wyoming without Uinta, DJ, and Powder River – 137 MBbl/d in 2023*
Other states (FL, NY, IL, IN, KY, MI, NE, SD, AL), Pacific Coast Offshore, and lease condensate from condensate and gas wells from Tight Oil basins, such as Permian, Eagle Ford, etc. – 125 MBbl/d
* includes lease condensate from condensate and gas wells