September 15, 2024

Williston crude oil production forecast to 2040 (MBbl/d).

Williston Oil Production

• Willison oil production is constrained by associated gas takeaway capacity.
• Williston oil production dropped from over 1,400 MBbl/d in 2019 to around 1,200 MBbl/d in 2023.
• Production is expected to increase back to the 1,400 MBbl/d level by 2025 before dropping to under 1,200 by 2040 as the basin matures.

Williston Oil Well Locations and Drilling

2020-2023	Average Lateral Length	10,000 ft
2020-2023	Average Total Well Depth	21,300 ft

Location: North Dakota and Montana Number of oil wells drilled since 2010: ~ 18,000 Average New Well Initial Productivity in 2023: 1039 Bbl/d Peak Production: 2019 (~1500 MBbl/d)

Williston Number of New Wells

• The number of new wells in Williston dropped from over 2,400 in 2014 to slightly over 1000 in 2023.
• Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to remain flat until 2033 and then start to decline due to maturity of the basin.
• Total number of new well locations with IPs over 1800 Bbl/d is over 8,000, while well locations between 900 and 1800 Bbl/d is also over 8,000.

Williston Crude Oil Well Initial Productivity (IP)

Williston Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)

• Well Initial Productivity (IP) dropped from over 1,200 Bbl/d in 2020 to just over 1,000 in 2023 as most sweet spots were drilled out.
• Incorrys is forecasting Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) to remain flat at about 700 MBbl until 2030.

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