September 15, 2024

Appalachian crude oil production forecast to 2040 (MBbl/d).

Appalachian Oil Production

• Appalachian oil production grew from about 10 MBbl/d in 2010 to 60 MBbl/d by 2023.
• Incorrys is forecasting it to continue to grow reaching about 90 MBbl/d in 2029-2030 due to volatile oil and condensate development in Utica and super-rich Marcellus.

Appalachian Well Locations and Drilling

2020-2023	Average Lateral Length	1,650 ft
2020-2023	Average Total Well Depth	9,700 ft

Location: Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky Number of oil wells drilled since 2010: ~ 1,080 Average New Well Initial Productivity in 2023: 920 Bbl/d Peak Production: 2023 (~60 MBbl/d)

Appalachian Number of New Wells

• Post 2019, oil drilling in the Appalachian basin started to shift from conventional oil and Ohio shale towards volatile oil and condensate in the Utica and super-rich Marcellus.
• The number of new wells drilled in Appalachian was over 140 in 2014 before declining to under 40 in 2021.
• The number of wells then increased to about 70 in 2023.
• Incorrys projects the number of new wells to continue to grow reaching over 120 by 2035.

Appalachian Crude Oil Well Initial Productivity (IP)

Appalachian Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)

• Well Initial Productivity (IP) significantly increased and reached over 900 Bbl/d in 2023 up from just 50 Bbl/d in 2010.
• Initial productivity is expected to decline going forward to about 500 Bbl/d in 2040.
• Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) reached over 420 MBbl in 2024.

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