Canadian Oil Production Forecast to 2035

July 8, 2024

Total Canadian oil production (MMBbl/d) forecast to 2035 by type; conventional onshore, offshore, and oil sands (further split between mining and in situ).

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Total Canadian oil production has been increasing at a healthy 5.5% annually between 2015 and 2023 growing from about 2.8 million barrels per day (MMBbl/d) to 4.3 MMBbl/d.
The Alberta oil sands accounted for about 75% of total Canadian production from 2015 through 2023. Mining accounted for about 60% of the total oil sands production in 2015 whereas today, mining and in situ represent about 50% each.
Other western Canadian production represents almost 20% of the total with Eastern Canada contributing about 7%.
Looking out to 2035, Incorrys is forecasting total Canadian oil production to continue to increase at about 2% annually through 2028 before leveling off for the remainder of the forecast period, averaging just 0.8% annually.
Oil sands production increases market share slightly to 78% in 2035 as East Coast Canada declines; Other Western Canada maintains its 20% share.

Note: data includes condensate from conventional and tight oil wells, but does not include condensate from well classified as gas or condensate.

References:
Alberta Oil Sands Royalty Data, 2022
Alberta Oil sands project data, 2022
Alberta Energy Regulator Plants and Facilities, 2023
C-NLOPB Statistical Information, 2023
CBC News, October 12, 2023
CBC News, May 9, 2023