Alberta Oil Production Forecast to 2040 (excl Oil Sands)

July 9, 2024

Alberta oil production forecast (MMBbl/d) to 2040 by major basin (excluding oil sands).

Alberta non-oil sands production includes wells classified as volatile oil, oil and heavy oil and excludes wells classified as Condensate and Bitumen.
Heavy oil wells can be developed utilizing thermal methods.
Alberta conventional and tight oil production grew from 2017 through 2019 reaching almost 600 MBbl/d before a noticeable drop resulting from the impacts of the 2020 Covid pandemic. Production has since recovered hitting 635 MBbl/d in 2023.
The largest contributor is the Clearwater region accounting for over 40% of the total from 2017 to 2023. Alberta East Heavy oil and Alberta North each account for almost 15% over the same period.
Incorrys is forecasting Alberta conventional and tight oil production to continue to grow to 780 MBbl/d by 2029, up 22% from 2023 before declining to 550 MBbl/d in 2040 reflecting the maturity of the Alberta basins.
Clearwater remains the largest source of Alberta conventional and tight oil production, accounting for over 50% of future production through 2040.

Note: Geographical areas (AB West Central, AB East Heavy Oils, AB North and AB Central) don’t include Montney, Clearwater, Duvernay and Cardium, which are analyzed separately.