June 18, 2025

Incorrys recently completed a comprehensive analysis of North American Natural Gas supply, and corresponding breakeven costs, for major onshore basins in the US and Canada. Incorrys determined the amount of natural gas resource* remaining in the major North America natural gas supply basins, at breakeven costs at or below USD $4/Mcf and greater than USD $4/Mcf.

The main findings are:

  • Total remaining natural gas resource for the five major US gas basins (Marcellus, Utica, Haynesville, Permian, and Eagle Ford) is estimated at 1,413 Tcf, of which 83% (1,134 Tcf) are at full cycle costs of USD $4/Mcf and below. Low-cost resources are available in liquids rich basins, such as Utica, Marcellus SW, and certain areas in Eagle Ford.
  • Western Canadian (WCSB) resources in the main producing plays (Montney, Duvernay, and Alberta Deep Basin) are 587 Tcf, of which 80% are below USD $4/Mcf. Most of the resources identified from our analysis (484 Tcf) are in the Montney.
  • There are significant additional gas resources available in the WCSB in higher cost plays, including the Horn River and Liard, which are not included in our analysis.
  • The largest remaining natural gas resources in the US are in the Permian basin (445 Tcf), however Permian development is currently focused on oil. Permian associated gas currently competes with Permian gas-focused activity for available pipeline takeaway capacity. Ranking a close 2nd is Marcellus with a gas resource of 405 Tcf.
  • There are 556 Tcf of associated gas resources, at near-zero cost, this is natural gas produced as a by-product of crude oil production.
  • Total US natural gas reserves* were 691 Tcf as at year-end 2022.
  • Based on current natural gas demand of about 38 Tcf per year (domestic and export), North America has about a 15-year supply of reserves remaining and 50 years of resource (including associated gas) – 85% of which is at or below USD$/Mcf.

* “Reserves” are quantities of natural gas that are already discovered, recoverable, and commercial. “Resources” are an estimate of the amount of natural gas with the potential of being produced.

References:
U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-end 2022