Duvernay Gas Production Forecast to 2040

December 03, 2025

Duvernay wells are more expensive compared to Montney and Alberta Deep Basin. Duvernay wells yield ~100 Bbl/MMcf, and higher, of natural gas liquids (NGLs). Liquids provide economic uplift to full cycle costs resulting in comparative costs to both the Montney and Alberta Deep Basin. Duvernay raw gas production was 0.59 Bcf/d in 2023 and is expected to reach about 1.6 Bcf/d by 2040.

New well initial productivity (IP) and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) varies significantly between different wells and year over year. Drilling in Duvernay is focused on a few sweet spots with high Initial Productivity. In 2022-2023, Duvernay new well Initial Productivity (IP) was around 23 MMcf/d. IP is expected to decline to about 19.3 MMcf/d by 2040. Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) reached over 17.3 Bcf in 2022. EUR is expected to decline to just under 14.5 Bcf in 2040.

Since drilling in Duvernay is limited (around 100 wells per year in 2023-2024) the information is insufficient to present detailed Duvernay new well IP and EUR forecast.

Duvernay Gas Well Locations and Drilling


2020-2023	Average Lateral Length, ft	12,200
2020-2023	Average Total Depth, ft	23,000

Location: Alberta
Number of gas wells drilled since 2010: ~1,355
Average New Well Initial Productivity in 2022-2023: 23 MMcf/d
Peak Production in 2022-2023: ~0.59 Bcf/d

Duvernay Number of New Wells

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The number of new wells in Duvernay dropped to around 90 in 2022, down from the peak of 170 in 2016. Incorrys is forecasting the number wells to grow to around 180 by 2040.