Core Demand for North American Natural Gas

November 04, 2025

Core Demand (residential and commercial sectors) mainly uses natural gas for winter heating loads. As illustrated in the chart, core demand correlates well to Heating Degree Days (HDD) with yearly swings resulting from warmer or cooler temperatures. Customer counts drive underlying Core demand growth of 0.4%/year. Efficiency factors on a normalized basis (Mcf/Customer/HDD) have steadied over the last decade, however, Incorrys is forecasting continued efficiencies of 0.1%/year. Efficiency factors include new building standards, opportunities to use modified technology applications such as adjustable smart digital thermostats, and conservation measures in existing housing stock (insulation, new windows).