July 9, 2024
After posting a 2.6% per year growth rate from 2019 to 2023, Incorrys forecasts Canadian oil sands growth to slow with the completion of new large scale mining projects. Incorrys now forecasts an average annual growth rate of 1.5% (from 3.1MM Bbl/d in 2023 to 3.4MM Bbl/d in 2030). This represents nearly 80% of total Canadian oil production in 2030. Observations:
- In 2023, 3.1MM bbl/d was produced from the Alberta oil sands, 1.5MM Bbl/d from mining, and 1.6MM Bbl/d from in situ projects.
- The majority of growth to 2030 is expected from in situ projects, which are scalable with lower up-front capital costs. In situ production grows to 1.8MM Bbl/d in 2030 from 1.6MM Bbl/d in 2023—an annual increase of 2.3% per year.
- Mining production increases at a slower annual rate of 0.7% per year and grows from 1.5MM Bbl/d in 2023 to 1.6MM Bbl/d in 2030. Growth is led by the debottlenecking Suncor Fort Hills mine and the Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) Horizon facility.
- With recent amalgamations, there are now only three operators mining oil sands: CNRL, Suncor, and Imperial.
Alberta Oil Sands and Pipeline Locations
