Total Oil Sands Production 2016-2022
July 9, 2024
Total Alberta oil sands production (MBbl/d), from 2016-2022, by production type; mining and in situ.
Mining accounts for about 40% of total oil sands production ranging from almost 900 MBbl/d in 2016 to over 1300 MBbl/d in 2022. In situ represents about 60% of total oil sands production.
Oil Sands Production Forecast by Project
July 9, 2024
Alberta oil sands production forecast (MBbl/d) to 2030 by project. Additional illustrative map showing the approximate location of the oil sands deposits and pipeline system.
After posting a 2.6% per year growth rate from 2019 to 2023, Incorrys forecasts Canadian oil sands growth to slow with the completion of new large scale mining projects. Incorrys now forecasts an average annual growth rate of 1.5% (from 3.1MM Bbl/d in 2023 to 3.4MM Bbl/d in 2030).
Oil Sands Production Forecast by Type
August 20, 2024
Alberta oil sands production forecast (MBbl/d) to 2030 by type (mining vs in situ (SAGD and CSS)). Additional illustrative map showing the approximate location of the oil sands deposits.
After posting a 2.6% per year growth rate from 2019 to 2023, Incorrys forecasts Canadian oil sands growth to slow with the completion of new large scale mining projects. Incorrys now forecasts an average annual growth rate of 1.5% (from 3.1MM Bbl/d in 2023 to 3.4MM Bbl/d in 2030).
In Situ Oil Sands Production by Company 2022
July 10, 2024
Alberta in situ oil sands production (MBbl/d) by company for 2022.
The top three in situ Producers are Suncor Energy (490 MBbl/d), Cenovus Energy (480 MBbl/d, and Canadian Natural Resources (34: MBbl/d). After the top three, production declines sharply to 140 MBbl/d declining to near zero.
Oil Sands Mining Production by Company
July 10, 2024
Alberta oil sands mining production (MBbl/d) by company.
The top 4 oil sands mining producers are Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, Imperial Oil, and Syncrude Canada.
Oil Sands Weighted Gross Revenue
July 11, 2024
Weighted gross revenue (USD/Bbl) for the Alberta oil sands, split between mining and in situ operations, from 2016 through 2022
Since 2016, gross revenue has been steadily climbing with the exception of 2020, impacted by the Covid pandemic. Mining had lower weighted gross revenue per barrel as compared to in situ operations.
Oil Sands Royalty Rate by Project Type
July 11, 2024
Alberta oil sands royalty rates for both mining and in situ operations for 2016-2022.
In general, royalty rates for mining and in situ have both been increasing, except for 2020 due to the impact of the covid pandemic. Mining rates have climbed from just over 1% to 26% and in situ from 8% to 19%.