Forecast of US Emissions from Natural Gas Flaring

May 1, 2024

Associated gas flaring emissions (CO₂ and CH4) peaked in 2019 at over 25 Mt CO₂eq primarily due to Williston Basin emissions.

The impact of the Covid pandemic resulted in a significant decrease in  2020 DOWN to under 20 Mt CO₂eq and they decreased further in 2021 to just over 10 Mt CO₂eq. In 2022.

Combined, Texas (47%) and North Dakota (38%) accounted for 85% of the total, or 1.3 Bcf/d of the reported US vented and flared natural gas.

North Dakota incorporated several regulation norms in connection with emissions. Even with growth of oil production in Permian and Williston basins, GHG emissions from flaring are expected to drop to 9 Mt CO2eq in 2030.

By 2030, total emissions from flaring will decline by almost 70% from their 2019 peak and by 40% since 2023.

Incorrys prepared the forecast for natural gas flaring based on analysis of processing and pipeline infrastructure, associated gas supply forecasts and government regulations.

Incorrys Methodology to Forecast Emissions

Sources:

1. EPA. 2023. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2021. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA 430-R-23-002. Available at https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-andsinks-1990-2021.https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-04/US-GHG-Inventory-2023-Main-Text.pdf. 
2. Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/5d5c5c8b0f451b472e858ceb97624a18-0400072023/original/2023-Global-Gas-Flaring-Tracker-Report.pdf
3. https://www.ndlegis.gov/information/acdata/pdf/43-02-03.pdf