Forecast of Emissions from US Petroleum Systems by GHG

May 1, 2024

GHG emissions, by greenhouse gas, from US petroleum systems is led by CO₂ and CH4. Emissions of other gases is negligible.

In recent years, industry has focused on reducing methane emissions from various fugitive leaks, venting from pneumatic devices, facilities, compressors, and well completions.

CO₂ and CH4 emissions are also the result of flaring, produced water, drilling mud degassing, chemical injection pump and other equipment used in the normal operations.

By 2030, emissions from oil production will increase to 80 Mt CO₂eq from about 70 Mt CO₂eq  today due to increased production primarily from the Permian basin however, Incorrys expects it to begin a downward trend post 2030 dropping to about 50 Mt CO₂eq by 2040.

Incorrys Methodology to Forecast Emissions

Sources:

1.EPA. 2023. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2021. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA 430-R-23-002. Available at https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-andsinks-1990-2021.

2.IEA. Oil 2023. Executive summary. Available at https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-2023/executive-summary.

3.IEA. Crude Oil Production. August, 31, 2023. available at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_crd_crpdn_adc_mbblpd_a.htm.

4.EIA. May, 24, 2022. Permian Basin Oil and Gas Output is Thought to Beat Record in June. Available at https://rextag.com/blog/EIA-Permian-Basin-Oil-and-Gas-Output-is-Thought-to-Beat-Record-in-June.