September 15, 2024
Total Oil Production Forecast
Permian Central Platform Oil Production
Permian Central Platform is the least productive area in the Permian basin with production increasing from 65 MBbl/d in 2023 to over 90 MBbl/d in 2029-2033. Only 130 wells were drilled in Central Platform in 2023 compared to over 2700 in Delaware and almost 2900 in Midland.
Permian Delaware Oil Production
Permian Delaware oil production is expected to grow and then start to decline after 2036-2038. Oil production will reach its peak of 4,200 MBbl/d around 2036.
Permian Midland Oil Production
Permian Midland oil production is expected to continue to grow and then begin to decline after 2034. Oil production will reach its peak of 3,300 MBbl/d in 2033-2034.
Permian Oil Well Locations and Drilling
| In 2020-2023 | Delaware | Central | Midland |
| Average Lateral Length, ft | 9,200 | 2,900 | 11,200 |
| Average Total Depth, ft | 19,100 | 9,300 | 19,600 |
| Location: West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Number of oil wells drilled since 2010: ~ 76,000 |
Number of New Wells
The number of new wells, for all three sub-basins, peaked at almost 8,000 in 2014 and has since declined to about 5,800 in 2023 due growth of new well initial productivity. Incorrys is forecasting the number of new wells to decline throughout the forecast period, due to maturity of the basin, reaching under 4,000 in 2040.
Permian Central Platform Crude Oil Well Initial Productivity (IP)
Permian Central Platform Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)
The well count increases to 180 by 2028 before steadily declining. In 2023, Central Platform new well Initial Productivity (IP) was only 180 Bbl/d compared to over 700 Bbl/d in Midland and around 1180 Bbl/d in Delaware. Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) reached 200 in 2023. In 2023 Central Platform only produced 0.15 Bcf/d of associated gas compared to 8 Mcf/d in Midland and 10.5 Bcf/d in Delaware areas of Permian.
Permian Delaware Crude Oil Well Initial Productivity (IP)
Permian Delaware Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)
Well Initial Productivity (IP) dropped slightly in 2023 to 1,180 Bbl/d and is expected to slowly decline during the forecast period to just over 1,000 Bbl/d as the sweet spots are attract capital first. Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) reached over 850 MBbl in 2022 and will continue to slowly decline due to maturity of the basin.
Permian Midland Crude Oil Well Initial Productivity (IP)
Permian Midland Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)
Well Initial Productivity (IP) is expected to slowly decline during the forecast period and reach slightly over 700 Bbl/d in 2040, down from about 850 Bbl/d in 2023. Well Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) reached over 580 MBbl in 2023 and is expected to decline slightly through 2030. Peak EUR in 2023 is related to focused drilling on a limited number of high production wells.